Scattered showers and thunderstorms end this evening; Pleasant weather Monday; A little rain possible in northwest Wisconsin Monday night-Tuesday; A more widespread rain event Wednesday

Local Storm Reports from Sunday, October 10, 2021

  • 6:05 PM: Hail 0.25 inch. 21 N Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)
  • 5:19 PM: Marine Thunderstorm Wind 43 mph. 5 WSW Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)
  • 5:02 PM: Hail 0.50 inch. 2 WSW Lutsen, MN (Cook County)
  • 4:23 PM: Hail 0.25 inch. Soudan, MN (St. Louis County)
  • 4:20 PM: Hail 0.50 inch. 6 E Fairbanks, MN (Lake County)
  • 3:43 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County) Report of tree down on powerline at or near Kabetogama visitor center.
  • 3:26 PM: Hail 0.25 inch. 11 NE Island Lake, MN (St. Louis County)
  • 12:55 PM: Hail 0.50 inch. 14 ESE Marcell, MN (Itasca County)
  • 12:51 PM: Hail 0.50 inch. 11 N Taconite, MN (Itasca County)

The surface and upper level low churning NE across Minnesota looks pretty cool on satellite imagery today.

Goes-16 visible loop from Sunday, October 10, 2021.

Water vapor loop from Sunday, October 10, 2021.

Although not as warm as the last few days, high temps will still be above normal into midweek, with highs in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin mainly in the 60s Monday and Tuesday, and in the upper 50s to middle 60s on Wednesday.

It does look like will see some cooler (more seasonable) temps arrive on Friday and Saturday with highs on those days in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and there is even a chance that we could see a more widespread frost in the Northland next weekend, and for many of us, that would be the first frost we’ve seen this fall, if it does happen.


Another area of low pressure will lift rapidly NE out of the Southern Plains this evening, reaching eastern Wisconsin by Tuesday morning — Most of the rain with this next low will only affect parts of northwest Wisconsin, but a little rain could extend as far west as far eastern Minnesota and into the Arrowhead. Timing of this rain would be from Monday night into the day Tuesday.

18z/1 PM NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM Monday to 1 AM Wednesday.


Midweek system

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to lift NE out of the Rockies on Tuesday, this low is expected to reach far northwestern Minnesota by Thursday morning. This system will bring some rain, gusty winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday into early Thursday, but with the low tracking west of our area, will likely see a dry slot surge NE out of southern Minnesota, and this dry slot will likely reduce how long and how much rain the Northland sees with this midweek storm.

The aforementioned dry slot (reddish colors) on Wednesday shows up nicely on this 500mb forecast from the NAM model.

Heavy snow is on the way over the next few days for parts of the Central and Northern Rockies into far western portions of the western High Plains.


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