Patchy drizzle/light rain possible near Lake Superior Tuesday; Periods of rain area-wide Wednesday; Drier and turning cooler late this week

Two more systems will be impacting the Northland over the next few days, with the one tomorrow not really giving us too much rain, but the system on Wednesday should bring a more widespread rainfall to the Northland, but even then we’re probably not looking at significant amounts of rain due in part to how quick the system moves through, and also due to a dry slot which will lift north out of southern Minnesota, and once that dry slot arrives the rain will diminish from SW-NE.

Evidence of that dry slot shows up well (reddish colors) on this 700mb forecast valid for Wednesday per 18z NAM model.

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A well organized area of low pressure continues to lift NE across Illinois this afternoon, this low is expected to reach the Green Bay, Wisconsin area by Tuesday morning, and eastern Upper Michigan by Tuesday evening. This low will bring a little rain or drizzle to areas of northwest Wisconsin and also to the Arrowhead and North Shore areas of northeast Minnesota over the next 24 hours.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday, October 11, 2021 (loop ends at 4:41 PM CT)

18z/1 PM NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast covering the first system on Tuesday (forecast loop time Midnight tonight to 7 PM Tuesday), again nothing too impressive in terms of rainfall with this one.

The NWS hazards map is lit up over the western U.S. today — Fire warnings, wind warnings, frost/freeze alerts, winter storm warnings and advisories, and one tornado watch in the Midwest (Illinois into far northwest Indiana).

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Note: Forecast storm tracks black arrows.

The same storm which will impact the Northland midweek will also be impacting much of the Rockies and Northern Plains where heavy snow and gusty winds are expected through Wednesday, with some snow accumulations looking likely as far east as the western Dakotas.

18z/1 PM HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to Noon Wednesday.

Rainfall totals ranging from around a quarter to half inch are possible on Wednesday in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with higher amounts to 0.75″ possible in spots.

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Sunday was a pretty active day in the number of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings in the NWS Duluth coverage area, with one of those tornado warnings covering parts of Cook County, northwest of Grand Marais, near the Eagle Mountain area, now that’s pretty rare to see a tornado warning that far north especially here in mid October!

Number of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued on Sunday: 6
Number of Tornado Warnings issued on Sunday: 3

A few more storm reports from Sunday, October 10, 2021

Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

  • 5:41 PM: Hail 1.75 inch (Golf Ball size) 14 NW Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)
  • 5:37 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 9 NNW Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) Trees down along Ball Club Road.
  • 5:29 PM: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 8 NW Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) Trees down on road.

Final Rainfall Reports from Saturday-Sunday, October 9-10, 2021

3 NE Tofte, MN: 3.00″
10.1 NNW Grand Marais, MN: 1.82″
1 W Buyck, MN: 1.75″
Lutsen, MN: 1.66″
1.0 N Big Falls, MN: 1.65″
3 S Northome, MN: 1.02″
International Falls, MN: 1.02″
Littlefork, MN: 0.97″
Grand Marais, MN: 0.87″
Orr, MN: 0.69″
2 E Celina, MN: 0.67″
0.1 NE Hovland, MN: 0.56″

Tim

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