Breezy with some rain at times on Wednesday (isolated thunder also possible) A quieter weather pattern locks in late week into next week

A powerful fall storm will bring severe weather and a threat for tornadoes to the Central Plains tonight, while heavy snow and gusty winds occur on the backside of this storm over parts of the Central/Northern Rockies into the western Dakotas.

This same storm will also impact northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday, but we’re not looking at any snow here, nor any severe weather, instead will be seeing a few bands of rain move quickly across the area, and there may even be a thunderstorm or two as well, but precipitation should come to an end rather quickly from SW-NE by Wednesday night thanks to a dry slot which lifts NE out of southwest Minnesota Wednesday afternoon/evening.

18z NAM model forecast

Forecast map valid for Wednesday morning, October 13, 2021.

A strong area of low pressure over southwest South Dakota moves NE, reaching eastern North Dakota by Wednesday evening, and southeast Manitoba by Thursday morning.

A few showers will continue tonight in parts of northwest Wisconsin, and also near Lake Superior, otherwise the rest of the area should remain dry tonight.

Rain moves into southwest portions of the Northland between 6-8 AM Wednesday, and then will see a few additional bands of rain continue to lift from SW-NE across the area from mid-morning Wednesday through Wednesday night.

Note: Brief heavy downpours are possible in our area on Wednesday, otherwise we’re looking at occasional light to moderate rain showers.

18z/1 PM NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 7 AM Friday.

Rainfall totals of around a half an inch are possible in northeast Minnesota on Wednesday, while lower amounts of generally one tenth to one quarter inch are forecast in northwest Wisconsin.

The highest precip amounts with Wednesday’s system will remain over the Dakotas where widespread 1″+ precip totals are expected.

Gusty east to southeast winds will also develop in the Northland during the day on Wednesday, with a potential for wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph (possibly even a little stronger). Winds diminish Wednesday night.

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There is a Moderate Risk (red) and an Enhanced Risk (orange) for severe thunderstorms tonight in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas.

Look at that snow (blue colors) that’ll be falling through Wednesday night over eastern Montana, eastern Wyoming, into far western parts of the Dakotas.

Various weather alerts are in effect across the North Central U.S.

Winter Storm Warning (pink)
Winter Weather Advisory (purple)
High wind alerts (brown and orange)
Tornado Watch (yellow)

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A classic mid latitude cyclone on full display this afternoon, with a strong area of low pressure centered over eastern Utah/western Colorado.

Warm and humid air is surging north ahead of the low (purple) while moisture gets thrown into colder air (blue) causing rain to change to snow, and there’s even been some thundersnow reported today over western South Dakota. A very dynamic system!

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, October 12, 2021 (loop time ends ~3:45 PM CT).

A look at the 500mb analysis from late Tuesday afternoon shows a potent mid/upper level low/trough covering the Rockies with a strong mid level jet max noted SE of the upper low over southern Arizona into central New Mexico (H5 winds ~90 knots). As this strong jet stream energy heads out into the Central Plains it should help generate severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes tonight.

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The weather pattern locally will be turning much quieter after Wednesday’s system exits the area, with no indications of any large weather system affecting the Northland at least through the middle of next week.

High temperature forecast valid Wednesday, October 13 to Sunday, October 17, 2021.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
50s on Thursday.
40s and lower 50s Friday.
50s Saturday and Sunday.

Tim

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