Breezy and Cooler (more seasonable) the next few days; A few showers this evening followed by mainly dry conditions into early next week

You wouldn’t really know it, but there actually is a strong fall storm affecting the Northland today, but due to the track of this system (thru the Dakotas) our area is being impacted by that dreaded dry slot. End result from this is for a few bands of quick moving rain showers (lasting a few hours at most) moving across our area which is followed by a drying trend, while a steadier, widespread, and much heavier precipitation event occurs on the north/west side of the area of low pressure (North & South Dakota).

MRMS radar loop ending 5:20 PM, Wednesday, October 13, 2021.

Scattered showers continue to lift quickly to the north across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon.

Scattered showers will come to an end by late this evening/overnight.

Rainfall totals in our area certainly came in on the low side compared to what the computer models were showing for today. Computer models were generally showing totals of 0.25-0.50″ in northeast Minnesota today, and from around 0.10-0.25″ in northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall totals from today, Wednesday, October 13, 2021
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu/

Note: Totals below are thru 5:15 PM Wednesday.

McGregor, MN: 0.40″
Walker, MN: 0.20″
Pine River, MN: 0.18″
Hill City, MN: 0.13″
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.13″
Duluth Airport: 0.09″
Aitkin, MN: 0.09″
Brainerd, MN: 0.08″
International Falls, MN: 0.08″
Saginaw, MN: 0.05″
Cloquet, MN: 0.05″
Grand Marais Airport: 0.05″
Orr, MN: 0.04″
Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.04″
Skibo, MN: 0.04″
Isabella, MN: 0.03″
Superior Airport: 0.03″
Bigfork, MN: 0.03″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.03″
Littlefork, MN: 0.02″
Minong, WI: 0.02″
Two Harbors, MN: 0.02″
Ely, MN: 0.02″
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.01″
Ashland, WI: 0.01″
Clam Lake, WI: 0.01″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.01″

A look at some of the snowfall reports on the cold side of today’s system

Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

5 SW Pony, MT: 28.0″
4.8 W Red Lodge, MT: 24.0″
5 SSE Whitewood, SD: 21.4″
Terry Peak, SD: 20.0″
2 NE Gillette, WY: 16.0″
3 WNW Spearfish, SD: 14.0″
1.5 SSE Bozeman, MT: 11.2″
1.0 N Sheridan, WY: 10.5″
3.5 NE Rapid City, SD: 3.0″

A look at the mid latitude cyclone over the Northern Plains today, it’s a textbook fall storm!

Moisture (green arrows)
Dry slot (magenta arrow)
Heavy Snow area (blue area)

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday, October 13, 2021.

Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, October 13, 2021.

Warm air spreading from SE-NW ahead of a surface low over northeast South Dakota this afternoon, while cooler air moves in from the SW on the south side of the area of low pressure today.

It will be pretty breezy in the Northland tonight into Thursday with ESE winds this evening shifting SW later tonight, with SW winds continuing on Thursday. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are likely through the day Thursday.

18z NAM-Nest model wind gust forecast thru 7 PM Thursday, October 14, 2021.

Temperatures will be trending cooler in the Northland over the next few days, but we’re still not looking at anything too cold for mid-October, and in fact it looks like our temps will be warming back up again this weekend into early next week.

Note: Normal highs this time of the year are generally in the low to mid 50s in our area.

High temperature forecast from Thursday, October 14 to Monday, October 18, 2021.

Thursday 10/14: Upper 40s to upper 50s.
Friday 10/15: Mid 40s to low 50s.
Saturday 10/16: 50s to ~60.
Sunday 10/17: Mid 50s to low 60s.
Monday 10/18: 60s.

Tim