Blustery and turning colder with a little snow tonight; Milder temps this weekend, another round of arctic air possible mid to late next week

5:24 PM Wednesday, January 26, 2022

A nice warmup moves into the Northland tonight with many locations in our area seeing temperatures climbing well into the 20s to around 30 degrees by late this evening, but a gusty south to southwest wind will also continue this evening with wind gusts to 30 mph.

Peak Wind Gusts thru 4 PM today, Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Ashland, WI: 43 mph
Duluth, MN: 40 mph
International Falls, MN: 37 mph
Brainerd, MN: 36 mph
Hibbing, MN: 33 mph

Two cold fronts will pass through the area tonight bringing areas of snow showers and flurries to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but snowfall amounts should remain on the light side (an inch or less)

A colder air mass returns for Thursday and Friday with more gusty winds Thursday this time from a northwesterly direction with wind gusts to around 30 mph.

Subzero temperatures are likely for Thursday night/Friday morning, but after that it does look like will get a bit of a break from the arctic stuff at least through early next week, but there are growing indications in long range model guidance for another blast of arctic air to impact the Northland for the middle to end of next week (~February 2-5)

  • 18 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth (normal in January is 14 subzero nights) Record is 27 subzero nights which occurred in January 1982 and January 1929.
  • Wednesday morning marked the 8th morning in a row with a subzero temperature in Duluth (January 19-26)
  • Average monthly temperature for January 2022 (thru the 25th) is running -7.6 degrees below average in Duluth.

~13% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of January 25, 2022. Average in late January is ~20 to 25% ice coverage.

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Temperatures are running ~25 to as much as 45 degrees warmer this afternoon compared to Tuesday afternoon across parts of North Dakota into western Minnesota as a brief shot of warmer air moves through.

Temperatures continue to warm across the Northland this afternoon, but the real warm stuff with temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s won’t arrive in the Northland until mid to late this evening into early Thursday morning.

Some snow showers, flurries and patchy blowing snow in the Northland tonight with some lake effect snow possible Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior mainly over Iron County (Hurley, Gile areas).

NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast ending 12 PM Thursday (snow in blue colors)

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A snowier pattern for next week is becoming less likely as computer models have been trending toward a less phased system and lower snowfall chances/amounts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Will still see a broad 500mb trough move east out of the western U.S. early next week, but it appears that this system will be unphased with one piece of energy taking the southern route through the Southern Plains, while another piece of energy passes through the upper Midwest. If this system doesn’t phase (looks unlikely to occur at the moment) then we likely won’t see a whole lot of snow in the Northland next week, or in the February 1-3 time frame.

Probabilities for >3″ of snow continue to diminish in the Northland for next week per Euro ensemble model.

Around 7 or 35% of GEFS members show snowfall totals of 6″ or more in parts of the Northland next week, while the other 13 or 65% show lesser amounts of snow.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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