5:15 PM Sunday, February 27, 2022
The Northland will be stuck in a NW flow aloft for the next few days and embedded in this NW flow will be several clipper-like systems which will move SE across the upper Midwest. None of these systems look very strong through midweek with only brief periods of snow expected in some parts of the Northland with mostly minor accumulations/little to no impacts.
500mb forecast valid Monday, February 28, 2022, through Wednesday, March 2, 2022.
Clipper arrives early Monday morning spreading some light snow SE across northern Minnesota, to possibly as far south as the Twin Ports and into parts of northwest Wisconsin, but snow chances are higher north of those aforementioned areas on Monday.
Radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to 6 PM Monday (snow in blue colors)
About an inch or two of snow is possible across far northern Minnesota and Arrowhead on Monday with less than an inch of snow farther south including in Duluth.
One thing will be seeing over the next few days will be a big temperature contrast, with spring like 50s from southwest Minnesota and southern South Dakota on south, while the Northland will remain much cooler with highs in the mid 20s to low/mid 30s on Monday, and similar high temperatures are likely for Tuesday and Wednesday too.
Average Temperature rankings for February 2022 (thru the 26th)
Hibbing: Coldest February on record
International Falls: 3rd coldest February on record
Duluth: 9th coldest February on record
Ashland: 10th coldest February on record
It still looks like will see a more active weather pattern develop later this week and beyond as we see lower 500mb heights/troughs/low pressure systems move out of the western U.S represented by the blue colors on the animation below.
Storm tracks and temperatures will determine what type/s of precipitation we see in the Northland, and on the amount of precipitation whether its light amounts/minor events or more significant amounts leading to greater impacts in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
500mb forecast valid March 4-14, 2022
Computer models have been hinting at a possible storm system impacting the Northland sometime between March 4-6, but differences with the storm track/amount of precipitation and precipitation types are evident in the model data today, and that will probably be the case for a few more days.
-Over the last few days, the computer models have been showing the possibility for a significant ice storm in parts of the Northland including in Duluth for Friday night-Saturday but where that zone of greatest ice accumulations sets up has been shifting a little north and south in the models with each run, and the same can also be said on where the greatest snow accumulations setup, with each model run shifting it a little north and south.
-The trend seen in the 12z model run today is for most of the freezing rain to setup from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin with the greatest ice accumulations setting up south of Duluth for Friday night-Saturday.
The issue with this potential late week storm is that we may see a strong push of warm air aloft move north ahead of a low-pressure system approaching from the Rockies with 850mb temperatures of 0C or warmer as far north as the Twin Ports. Surface temperatures, however, look to remain below the freezing mark, so this does lead to the potential for freezing rain and or sleet in parts of the Northland Friday night into Saturday.
Here’s a look at where an area of low pressure is forecast to be Saturday evening (March 5) per EPS model.
The mean is over far southeast Iowa (red L on map) with member centers as far north as the Twin Cities, as far west as north-central Kansas and as far east as north-central Illinois come Saturday evening. So, there is uncertainty on the storm track for late this week/next weekend.
The farther south/southeast the low tracks the less precipitation will see in the Northland.
Probabilities for getting more than 3 inches of snow are rather high in much of the Northland thru March 6, with those chances not really increasing until after March 4.
The potential for getting 6 inches or more of snow thru March 6 have decreased in the Northland and that’s likely due to the potential for freezing rain and sleet which would cut into the snowfall totals.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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