6:40 PM Friday, March 4, 2022
Several rounds of wintry precipitation are expected to impact parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin beginning late tonight and continuing through early Sunday morning.
An Ice Storm Warning, Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for parts of the Northland through early Sunday morning.
Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly due to the freezing rain and sleet late tonight/early Saturday morning and travel could be nearly impossible from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin through Sunday morning.
PRECIPITATION TIMING
Round one occurs overnight tonight and lasts through about mid-morning on Saturday. This round of precipitation will impact northwest Wisconsin the most as that is where the greatest accumulations of ice are expected, but this area of precipitation will also affect parts of eastern and northeast Minnesota including the Duluth area although precipitation amounts should be lower with lesser impacts expected for those areas.
Note: Precipitation is forecast to develop after Midnight tonight (most likely in that 1 AM to 3 AM time frame)
Precipitation types with this first round of precipitation will be in the form of freezing rain and sleet, but some snow is also possible especially in northeast Minnesota.
Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM Saturday
Snow in blue colors
Wintry mix in purple and pink colors
Note: Black outlined area represents where ice accumulations of 0.10″ to 0.25″ could occur through Saturday morning.
Additional rounds of precipitation are forecast to lift northeast impacting eastern Minnesota, parts of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.
Freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet will be the main precipitation types Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening with a transition to snow occurring by mid to late Saturday evening as the atmosphere cools sufficiently to cause the icy mix of precipitation to switch over to all snow.
Precipitation ends around daybreak on Sunday.
Simulated radar forecast valid 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.
Snow in blue colors
Wintry mix in purple and pink colors
ICE STORM
Ice accumulation forecast for Duluth per 12z EPS model
Low end 0.05″, high end 0.56″.
Here’s a look at the total ice accumulation forecast per NWS Blend of Models.
Parts of eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin are forecast to get the greatest amounts of ice with a potential for up to a quarter inch or more of ice accumulation through Saturday evening.
Lesser amounts of ice are currently expected in the Duluth area as we may see more sleet rather than freezing rain, and this would actually help us out as it would cut down on the amount of icing we’d see on trees and power lines, however, will likely still get at least some freezing rain at times in Duluth Saturday morning into early Saturday evening with ice accumulations <0.10″.
The greatest potential for power outages and possible tree damage due to the ice is over northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of eastern Minnesota, but a few power outages can’t be ruled out for areas a little farther north and also in Duluth, and those chances will increase further if freezing rain becomes the main type of precipitation through early Saturday evening.
SNOWFALL FORECAST
This storm over the weekend will also bring some snow to parts of the Northland, but this is likely to be a pretty narrow swath of snow, and a very sharp cutoff in snow amounts is likely on the NW-SE side of where the main band of snow sets up.
Additional updates to my snowfall forecast are possible through the day Saturday with higher and or lower snow amounts possible, and a further tightening of the snowfall gradients.
Note: The bulk of the snow this weekend falls from mid to late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, with timing for Duluth in that 9 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday time frame the way it looks now.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday into early Saturday evening across southern Minnesota into central and southern Wisconsin but isolated non severe thunderstorms are also possible as far north as northwest Wisconsin, the Twin Ports and adjacent areas of eastern Minnesota on Saturday.
Instability and moisture will be lacking for a more significant severe weather event on Saturday, but there will be enough of both and that combined with strong winds aloft and favorable wind shear could lead to a few tornadoes Saturday afternoon and evening from far southern Minnesota into Iowa, east to southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois.
HRRR model does show some potential for rotating supercell thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as noted by the helicity streaks (different colors on the map) along the Nebraska-Iowa border into central/northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin.
STORM TRACK
One thing that has remained pretty consistent on the models the last few days is the track of this weekend’s storm.
Low pressure over northwest Kansas around daybreak on Saturday heads northeast reaching northern Iowa Saturday evening and eastern upper Michigan by around daybreak on Sunday.
Here’s a look at our approaching storm for this weekend per water vapor imagery.
A deep trough over the western U.S. with several pieces of energy ejecting NE out of that trough, while moisture surges north out of the Gulf of Mexico.
Thanks for reading!
Tim