11:36 AM Sunday, March 20, 2022
Happy first day of Spring 2022!
-Snowmelt season is well underway across the Northland with the snow depth at the Duluth Airport dropping from 18″ last Sunday (13th) down to 9″ as of March 19th, while the snow depth at International Falls has dropped from 24″ last Sunday to 17″ as of March 19th.
-Unfortunately, we have more snow in the forecast, but that really shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to those of us who have lived in this area for a long enough period of time.
The storm of interest for the Northland is the one currently over the western U.S., this is a large system with a massive mid-upper-level trough digging well to the south, with two main pieces of energy, one across southwest Canada, the other heading into the southwest U.S.
How this system evolves through mid-week will determine just how much of an impact it will have on our weather in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but at the very least we are looking at some impacts from this system, and they could be quite significant in some parts of the Northland.
Water vapor satellite loop from Sunday morning, March 20, 2022.
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- A variety of precipitation types are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Monday night through Wednesday ranging from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow.
- Currently it looks like the North Shore could be hit the hardest by the amount of freezing rain (icing) and snow accumulations.
- The bulk of the snow with this system looks to fall from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
- Freezing rain potential looks highest from Monday evening into Tuesday morning, with parts of northeast Minnesota (especially along the North Shore) into extreme northwest Wisconsin having a chance for >0.05″ ice accumulation, with upwards of a quarter inch of ice accumulation possible along the North Shore.
- Snow that does fall and accumulate Tuesday into Wednesday will likely be a high-water content type of snow, in other words a wet/concrete type of snow.
- Strong east to northeast winds are also expected with this system, with the strongest winds likely occurring near Lake Superior. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph are likely from Monday through Wednesday, with wind gusts to 45 mph possible.
- Winter weather headlines could be issued for some parts of the Northland by later today for the Monday night-early Wednesday time frame.
NWS Blend of Models Total Ice thru 7 PM Tuesday, March 22, 2022 — Again most of this icing would be in the Monday evening to Tuesday morning time frame the way it looks now.
Black outlined area on map has a chance for ~0.25″ ice accumulation.
Strongest wind gusts are expected near Lake Superior (black outlined area on map) from Monday through Wednesday.
Wind gust forecast valid 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Wednesday.
PRECIPITATION & SNOWFALL TOTALS
Using ensemble model data (CMCE, GEFS and EPS) would give Duluth ~1.27″ of total precipitation through 7 PM Wednesday with nearly 6″ of snow (5.9″) per the 00z model run from early today.
Here’s a look at the EPS model (06z run) of snowfall probabilities thru 7 PM Wednesday, March 23, 2022.
Again, most of the snow looks to fall in that Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
1″ or greater snowfall potential — Much of the Northland has a very good chance to get at least an inch of snow out of this system.
3″ or greater snowfall potential — Highest probabilities cover much of northern and northeast Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin.
6″ or greater snowfall potential — Highest probabilities are along the North Shore in northeast Minnesota extending into far northwest Wisconsin (yellow, orange and red colors) with much lower chances for >6″ snowfall the farther west and south you go in the Northland.
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms including a risk for strong tornadoes exists Monday and Tuesday across parts of the southern U.S., this is associated with the same storm that will be impacting the upper Midwest. What effect this has on precipitation totals in our area is unknown, but it will be something to keep an eye on as sometimes severe weather can use up a lot of the moisture before it reaches this far north, but so far most of the computer models have still been showing a lot of precipitation in much of the Northland despite the threat for a two-day severe weather outbreak well to our south.
Thanks for reading!
Tim