Areas of dense fog near Lake Superior tonight-Tuesday morning; Rain, wet snow and drizzle on the way Tuesday-Thursday

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Areas of dense fog near Lake Superior tonight-Tuesday morning; Rain, wet snow and drizzle on the way Tuesday-Thursday

Published by

Timothy Burr

on

April 4, 2022

6:16 PM Monday, April 4, 2022

Active weather ahead over the next few days.

The main weather story for tonight is the potential for fog near Lake Superior due to a humid onshore flow combined with added moisture leftover from last night’s snowfall and today’s snowmelt.

Up next will be a slow moving and strong spring storm which will bring widespread precipitation to the Northland Tuesday through Thursday.

Temperatures aloft through this event will be cold enough for snow, but boundary layer temperatures will be marginal to produce an all-snow event, instead we’re likely looking at periods of rain, a mix of rain/snow, and at times a complete changeover to wet sloppy snow.

The time frames for where we could see a few hours of just snow looks to be Tuesday afternoon/evening through early Wednesday morning and again on Thursday.

Storm track forecast.

Widespread precipitation totals of a half inch to over an inch is likely across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Thursday evening.

Trying to come up with a snowfall forecast for this event is nearly impossible since will likely be dealing with all rain at times, a mix at other times, and all snow at other times.

Here’s what I have for snowfall amounts through 1 PM Wednesday.

Whatever snow does accumulate will be very wet and slushy, and a lot of the snow could melt on contact especially on the roads unless snowfall rates are heavy enough to cool the pavement temperature.

Seasonal Snowfall Total for 2021-22 at Duluth, Minnesota is at 78.0″ after last night’s snow event. Normal snowfall to date is 81.9″. Percent of Normal Snowfall through April 4th is at 95% of normal.

Precipitation is actually running a little below normal so far this spring at Duluth with 1.31″ of total precipitation since March 1, normal to date is 1.73″. Percent of Normal Precipitation so far this spring is at 76% of normal.

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Our next system to affect the Northland is currently moving ESE across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest as seen on Goes-16 water vapor imagery.

As I mentioned above this will be a slow-moving storm which is pretty typical for this time of year.

Will see a closed mid/upper-level low move ESE across the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes from Tuesday through Thursday. This system will keep the weather on the unsettled side in the Northland over the next few days.

500mb forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Thursday.

-Will see precipitation spread into western-southern portions of the Northland during the day Tuesday, and then into northwest Wisconsin, North Shore and Arrowhead areas between mid and late afternoon Tuesday and early Tuesday evening.

-The most widespread precipitation is expected Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon, followed by more showery precipitation (dry times mixed in) due to possible effects from a dry slot Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

For Duluth — There are big differences in the computer models for the start time to the precipitation on Tuesday with the HRRR, RAP, GFS and NAM-Nest models a lot quicker (precip begins ~7 to 11 AM Tuesday) compared to the slower European computer model which keeps the Twin Ports dry until later Tuesday afternoon (after 2 PM). Typically, with these systems slower is the way to go, but the European computer model has been garbage as of late so will see how things play out on Tuesday.

Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Thursday.

Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Mix Precipitation (pinkish colors)

Gusty winds are likely across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest from Tuesday through Friday morning with some of the strongest wind gusts across the Western High Plains into the Northern Plains (40-55 mph or stronger)