6:17 PM Tuesday, April 12, 2022
A powerful spring storm will continue to affect a large portion of the U.S. over the next few days. This storm will have it all, including widespread strong winds, heavy snow and blizzard conditions, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
HIGH WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
Strong northeast winds are likely tonight through Wednesday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a Wind Advisory is in effect, this includes Duluth, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Grand Marais.
Wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior this evening through around mid-morning on Wednesday. Isolated power outages are possible due to the strong winds.
Wind gust forecast through 4 PM Wednesday.
Strongest winds in Duluth will occur this evening through about mid-morning on Wednesday, wind speeds will diminish Wednesday afternoon.
Another round of gusty winds is expected Thursday and Friday although not as windy as it will be tonight. Southwest winds Thursday shifting more westerly Friday.
A Flood Watch is in effect from this evening through Thursday morning for a part of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland and Hurley.
-Flooding caused by rain and or snowmelt and or ice jam is possible.
-Heavy rain on top of a melting snowpack may cause rapid runoff which could cause area streams to swell quickly causing flooding.
Rainy at times across the Northland tonight with heavy downpours possible especially over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where a few thunderstorms could occur tonight.
Areas of rain and drizzle continue Wednesday, although will likely have some dry hours too.
Some of the precipitation could fall as wet snow tonight and Wednesday along the Borderland, and also over the Arrowhead.
Simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Wednesday.
Total storm precipitation amounts are expected to generally be in the half inch to one inch range in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through early Friday with higher totals possible along the Borderland, North Shore/Arrowhead and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin. Lower amounts of precipitation are expected in the Brainerd Lakes area.
Note: The heaviest precipitation with this system is expected to fall tonight into early Wednesday.
Some wet snow is possible late tonight and Wednesday near the Borderland and Arrowhead with slushy snowfall accumulations of a trace to 3 inches possible through 7 PM Wednesday.
Note: Additional snow showers are expected over much of the Northland Thursday and Friday with a chance for heavier snow squall development on Thursday.
Although significant snow accumulations are unlikely in the Northland Thursday or Friday, some minor snow accumulation is possible, and the combination of strong winds and falling snow at times will produce limited visibility at times.
SEVERE WEATHER
The greatest potential for severe weather is south of the Northland tonight, from southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin, into Iowa, far eastern Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota (yellow, orange and red shaded areas)
Some tornadoes (a few strong ones) are expected late this afternoon and this evening from eastern Nebraska into western, central and northern Iowa and possibly as far north as far southern Minnesota.
There is plenty of energy to support a higher end severe event tonight with surface-based CAPE >3000 J/kg in parts of west-central and southern Iowa late this afternoon.
Strong wind shear also in place this afternoon with southeast winds near the surface backing more southerly at 850mb.
A volatile setup in place for severe weather this evening with incredibly high SRH values over western/central Iowa.
Violent tornado parameters are maxed out and then some late this afternoon across west-central Iowa, wow!
Tornado Watches are in effect for parts of southeast South Dakota, northeast Nebraska, northern Iowa into far southern Minnesota this evening.
Thunder probabilities through 7 PM Wednesday.
Highest chances for thunder indicated by the blue and purple colors on the animation below, a lower chance for thunder in the green and gray colors.
A classic spring dryline over the Central Plains this afternoon with humid air east of the dryline with dew points in the 60s while high winds and much drier air was found behind the dryline with dew points in the 20s.
This dryline will be one of the ingredients for severe weather tonight.
A zoomed in view of the Northland shows a lower risk (Marginal, 1/5) for isolated severe thunderstorms tonight roughly south of a line from Pine City to Winter while isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible in the lighter green shaded area on the map.
Note: Large hail to 1″ in diameter or quarter size would be the main severe weather threat in far southern areas tonight.
Two lows, one lifts NE out of northeast Nebraska, the other lifts NE out of eastern North Dakota. Will see the two lows merge a bit on Thursday northwest of Lake Superior.
Goes-16 water vapor of this powerful spring storm today.
You can pick out all the different elements to this storm on vapor imagery.
1: Ongoing blizzard in eastern Montana and much of North Dakota as deep moisture lifts north into colder air causing bands of very heavy snow, while winds of 30-40+ mph produce widespread blowing/drifting snow and blizzard conditions.
2: An initial round of elevated convection (almost an MCS type system) continues to move ENE across central and into eastern Wisconsin late this afternoon, those storms developed over southern Minnesota around mid-afternoon today. Numerous reports of hail and gusty winds with this area of storms this afternoon.
3: The main severe weather event getting going late this afternoon over northwest Iowa and far southeast South Dakota.
A different view from Goes-16 sandwich imagery. Pretty cool! One round of storms moves out, the next round develops rapidly late today over northwest Iowa and far southeast South Dakota.
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD
A powerful spring storm will continue to bring blizzard conditions to a large part of North Dakota through at least Thursday.
Total snowfall storm accumulations of 1 to nearly 3 feet are expected in parts of North Dakota by Friday morning with incredible amounts of drifting snow!
Blizzard Warning continues through Thursday (red area)
Thanks for reading!
Tim