5:52 PM Tuesday, April 19, 2022
Another messy system on the way for Wednesday.
Rain should be the main precipitation type in all of northwest Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota and in lower elevation in Duluth, but there should be just enough cold air for wet snow or a mix of rain and snow across north-central Minnesota into the Arrowhead and also in higher elevation areas in Duluth.
Some of the snow could become moderate to heavy at times across north-central and northeast Minnesota on Wednesday, especially from late morning through late afternoon.
Roads could become snow and slush covered across parts of northern Minnesota during the day Wednesday as heavier snowfall develops, but surface temperatures will be on the marginal side for accumulating snow on pavement/road surfaces, with highs Wednesday ranging from 32 to 35 degrees. Will need to get some fairly heavy snowfall rates in order to get accumulations on the roads especially since this snow will fall during the daytime (milder part of the day).
East winds gusting 15 to 25 mph could cause some patchy blowing snow in parts of northern Minnesota and along the North Shore of Lake Superior on Wednesday.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 10 PM Wednesday for a small part of far northeast Minnesota including the cities of Tofte, Lutsen, Grand Marais and Hovland.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 7 PM Wednesday for parts of northeast Minnesota including the cities of Cotton, Hibbing, Virginia, Hoyt Lakes, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Babbitt, Wales, Whyte, Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay and Finland.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Wednesday’s event.
For Duluth — Less than an inch of snow in lower elevation (below the hill) while in higher elevation (on top of the hill) anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of slushy snow is possible during the day Wednesday.
There might be a little light snow later tonight across parts of northern and northeast Minnesota, but the main event with this system will occur on Wednesday as precipitation becomes widespread while spreading SW-NE across the area between 7-10 AM Wednesday.
Precipitation will end from west to east late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening.
For Duluth — A few flurries or snow showers are possible late tonight (no snow accumulation is expected) A steadier precipitation (rain or wet snow) arrives ~8 to 10 AM Wednesday. Precipitation ends early Wednesday evening ~6 to 8 PM. Heaviest precipitation rates are expected from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. East winds on Wednesday gusting 15 to 25 mph.
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM Wednesday
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Widespread precipitation totals of a half inch to around an inch is expected on Wednesday across much of the Northland with over an inch of precipitation possible over the Arrowhead due to some lake enhanced precipitation. Lower amounts of precipitation ranging from around 0.10″ to 0.40″ is expected toward the Ashland and Hurley areas in northwest Wisconsin.
Two more systems will impact the Northland through this weekend.
The first moves through on Wednesday, the second from Friday night through early next week.
500mb forecast valid April 20 through April 25, 2022.
Troughs/unsettled weather in blue and green colors.
Ridging/generally quiet weather in orange colors.
The system for this weekend remains on track with low pressure lifting NE out of the Rockies and through the Northern Plains.
Occasional rain will occur in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in the warmer air to the east of the low-pressure track, with most of this rain coming Friday night through Saturday evening.
Some thunderstorms are also possible in parts of the Northland Friday night and Saturday as there looks to be a decent amount of elevated CAPE which builds north out of southern Minnesota especially Friday night/early Saturday morning.
The potential for severe thunderstorms this far north is very low with this system with the main hazard from any thunderstorm being from lightning and brief heavy downpours with a slight chance for sub-severe hail Friday night.
As the low departs late this weekend/early next week will see colder air work back into the Northland which could cause some snow showers or mixed rain/snow showers from Sunday night through Monday.
Depending how far north the warm front gets on Saturday will be key on how warm it will be on Saturday.
If things work out just right, then we could be seeing widespread 70s for daytime highs on Saturday across a large part of Minnesota and Wisconsin with 80s possible in parts of southern Minnesota, but it will be a lot cooler in most of the Northland but especially near Lake Superior due to a gusty NE wind on Saturday.
The overall trend through May 5th is for below average temperatures to continue in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, that’s not to say we won’t get a day or two of warmer temperatures mixed in, but overall, a cooler than average temperature pattern continues for about the next two weeks.
We’re still waiting for the first 60 degree or warmer high temperature of the year at Duluth. The average date for first 60 degree high is April 8th (1991-2020 climate period). Earliest first 60 on record March 6 (1987), latest first 60 on record May 11 (1950).
Looking back at weather records for Duluth (dating back to 1875) there’s only been 11 years where we haven’t seen any 60-degree high temperatures in the month of April, the last time this happened was in April 1996.
1996
1995
1975
1950
1922
1920
1917
1909
1907
1893
1875
Below average temperatures (blue and purple colors)
Above average temperatures (orange colors)
Temperature anomaly forecast through May 5th, 2022.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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