Another Spring Storm on the way Friday PM-Sunday; Occasional showers, t-storms and gusty winds for the Northland; Blizzard to hit western North Dakota

Timothy Burr

4 years ago

6:48 PM Thursday, April 21, 2022

Some parts of the Northland could have temperatures in the 60s to around 70 from mid to late afternoon on Saturday, but this won’t be happening near Lake Superior including in Duluth where I expect much cooler temperatures (30s and 40s), strong northeast winds with gusts to 35 mph, fog and mist to be an issue from Friday night through Saturday night. So, if you want to enjoy some warmer spring like temperatures on Saturday and if you live near Lake Superior, travel about 40-60 miles south and it will actually feel like spring, at least for a day!

There is a chance for a few thunderstorms in the Northland Friday night through Saturday night.

The storms Friday night will be associated with a northward moving warm frontal boundary. A strong low-level jet will advect warmer, more humid air northward while also increasing the amount of elevated instability, this along with steep mid-level lapse rates >7.5 c/km will help to produce a few thunderstorms Friday night, and it’s possible that a few of these storms could produce hail which could reach up to 1″ in diameter (quarter size), although I think the bigger risks from these storms will be from brief heavy downpours and lightning and mostly sub-severe hail stones (<1″ in diameter).

The setup for severe weather on Saturday doesn’t look too impressive to me.

The amount of instability looks pretty meager at the moment, but winds aloft will be very strong, including from the low levels to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and this combined with a strong surface low over the Dakotas and a warm front and cold front over the upper Midwest may still be enough to produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of Minnesota Saturday into Saturday evening, but at the moment I think those chances are a little greater farther west, or from western to south-central and possibly into central Minnesota.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we see the scattered severe storm-level 2/5 risk area or the yellow area on the map shift farther west and south for Saturday with Friday morning’s updated forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.

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Here comes our next spring storm as it moves northeast out of the southwest U.S. through early next week.

The upper-level low associated with this system is forecast to move through the Dakotas on Saturday and to the north of Lake Superior by around daybreak on Monday.

500mb forecast valid from 7 AM Friday, April 22 to 7 AM Monday, April 25.

Storm track forecast.

Low pressure over western Nebraska Friday evening moves into northwest Minnesota by daybreak on Sunday. With the low passing well west of the Northland this keeps our area on the warmer side of this system which means that rain will be the main precipitation type this weekend.

We should see some thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Friday night/Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday evening.

Thunder forecast valid from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM Sunday.

Higher probabilities of thunder in blue colors.

Outlook for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

-A few rain or snow showers are possible late tonight through Friday morning mainly over northern Minnesota, and then we will see scattered rain showers through the day Friday, but the key word here is scattered, and a lot of us will probably stay dry for most of the day.

-Rain showers become more widespread Friday night through Saturday morning, and some thunderstorms are possible as well.

-Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should continue Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

-Sunday morning could end up being mainly dry in the Northland, but moisture wrapping around a strong low to our northwest could cause some showers to redevelop Sunday afternoon/evening.

-Fog and drizzle should develop near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports Friday night, and the fog and drizzle may linger through Saturday evening.

Simulated radar forecast valid 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Sunday.

Rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch are possible in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin from Friday afternoon through Saturday night with around a quarter to half inch of rain possible in southeast portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Note: Higher rainfall amounts are possible in and near thunderstorms.

Strong southerly winds will help transport a more humid air mass northward into the upper Midwest Friday, but especially on Saturday, this is when we could have dew points in the 50s to around 60 degrees (green and blue colors) in parts of the upper Midwest.

This weekend’s storm will also have a snowy side to it, and this snow will hit parts of western, central and northern North Dakota once again with 6-12″+ of snow accumulation possible west of the Bismarck area.

Winter weather alerts in effect for parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains this weekend.

Blizzard Warning (red)
Winter Storm Warning (pink)
Winter Storm Watch (blue)
Winter Weather Advisory (purple)

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