5:47 PM Tuesday, May 17, 2022
Two systems will be affecting the upper Midwest over the next few days.
The first system digs ESE out of southern Manitoba and passes through the upper Midwest on Wednesday, this will be followed by a stronger system which digs even farther SE as it comes out of western Canada on Wednesday while passing over the Northern Plains on Thursday.
Greatest chances for some rain in the Northland will occur Wednesday afternoon/evening, and again Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.
Although a few isolated showers can’t be ruled out Friday afternoon through Sunday, the overall trend for that time frame is for mostly dry weather to return to the Northland the way it looks now.
500mb height anomaly forecast valid May 18 – May 20, 2022.
Troughs/unsettled weather in blue and green on the animation below.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire Northland Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
Primary severe weather threats on Wednesday
- Damaging Wind gusts to 60 mph
- Large Hail to 1″ diameter or quarter size
Simulated radar forecast valid 7 AM Wednesday to 10 PM Wednesday.
A risk for strong to severe thunderstorms continues in parts of the Northland including for east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin for Thursday afternoon through Thursday night with the highest chances covering far southern parts of northwest Wisconsin (yellow).
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary severe weather threats on Thursday.
Flood Warning Update
-Flood Warning continues until Noon Friday for a portion of northeast Minnesota including St. Louis County. Some locations that will experience flooding include Island Lake, Fredenberg, Taft and Fish Lake.
-Flood Warning remains in effect until further notice for the Mississippi River at Aitkin. At 9:30 AM Tuesday, the stage was 15.2 feet, flood stage is 13.0 feet. Moderate flooding is occurring, and moderate flooding is forecast. The river is expected to crest at 15.2 feet this afternoon. This crest compares to a previous crest of 15.4 feet on April 12, 2020.
-Flood Warning now in effect until early Sunday afternoon for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley. Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast. At 9:30 AM Tuesday, the stage was 11.1 feet, flood stage is 10.5 feet. The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending 9:30 AM Tuesday was 11.2 feet. The river is expected to fall below flood stage early Sunday afternoon and continue falling to 10.2 feet Tuesday morning. This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.1 feet on April 22, 1996.
Rainy River Basin Flood Information – UPDATED May 17, 2022
Looks like much of the Northland has a chance to get up to at least a half inch of rain thru Friday with higher rainfall totals possible.
5-Day Significant River Flood Outlook through May 22, 2022.
Significant River Flooding is occurring in red.
The spring of 2022 has been a bad one for farmers.
Corn Progress – Percent Planted as of May 15, 2022.
North Dakota: 4%
South Dakota: 31%
Wisconsin: 34%
Minnesota: 35%
Conditions have been a little better farther south.
Nebraska: 62%
Iowa: 57%
Illinois: 55%
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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