6:43 PM Sunday, June 12, 2022
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over much of the Northland later tonight and Monday, and some of these storms could produce heavy rain with a marginal (5%) risk for flash flooding centered on southern parts of the Northland.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 7 PM Monday.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through Monday morning mostly over western and southern parts of the Northland. The primary severe weather threats include large hail of quarter to ping pong ball size (1″ to 1.5″ diameter) and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.
Some cities in the Northland which are in the slight risk for severe thunderstorms (level 2 out of 5) include Brainerd, Aitkin, Longville, Bena, Walker, Cass Lake, Deer River, and Northome.
A few severe thunderstorms developed this afternoon over northwest Minnesota and the anvil or blow off clouds from those storms are moving well to the southeast this afternoon thanks to strong west to northwest winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Note: A tornado was reported at 5:10 PM today, Sunday, June 12, 2022, 6 miles ENE of High Landing, MN (Pennington County) in the northwest part of the state.
A massive heat dome remains over the southern and central Plains today with a trough over the Pacific northwest and another trough over eastern Canada.
Winds aloft across the upper Midwest between the two troughs and north of that heat dome are coming out of the west to southwest, and pieces of energy embedded in the stronger flow aloft will help in developing storm clusters tonight through Tuesday across parts of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
Check out these temperatures under the core of the upper-level ridge centered over the central and southern Plains today.
Locations that tied or broke their record high temperatures (orange and red circles on animation below) over the past 24 hours.
Parts of western and southern Minnesota are in the 80s to lower 90s this afternoon with 60s and 70s common in the Northland with even cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior (50s).
A similar temperature pattern is expected on Monday.
Tuesday is still looking very warm in much of the Northland as we finally tap into some of that intense heat to our south, but this warmth in our area will only last a day as will see somewhat cooler temperatures (near normal) return mid to late week, except near Lake Superior where it will turn warmer mid to late week thanks to a wind shift from the east to the west.
Note: Highs in the mid 80s to low 90s are possible in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, but it will be much cooler near Lake Superior (highs 55 to 65). It will also be muggy on Tuesday with dew points in the 60s to around 70 except for lower dew point temperatures near Lake Superior.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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