Warm and turning more humid Thursday and Friday with scattered showers/t-storms possible; Cooler and less humid this weekend

8:17 PM Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Much of the day Thursday looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with warm southerly winds and a slightly muggier air mass compared to the less humid weather we had today (Wednesday).

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible by mid or late afternoon Thursday over northeast/north-central Minnesota with a better chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms for Thursday night/early Friday morning across the entire Northland. There should be plenty of instability in place for storms to tap into on Thursday, but winds aloft and the amount of wind shear look pretty minimal, so a widespread severe weather event looks unlikely for Thursday afternoon/night, but isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with a potential for large hail and damaging winds is possible for Thursday afternoon/night.

18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

18z HRRR model simulated radar forecast valid 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

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HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL

Average rainfall totals ranging from 0.10″ to 0.75″ are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Saturday afternoon, but much higher rainfall totals are possible in and near thunderstorms.

FLOOD POTENTIAL

All of northwest Wisconsin, and east-central Minnesota into parts of north-central and northeast Minnesota are in a marginal (5%) risk for flash flooding from late Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

A higher risk for flash flooding exists Friday into early Saturday morning over northwest into north-central Minnesota where there is a Slight Risk for flash flooding. A lower risk for flash flooding in green.

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Temperatures will warm well into the 80s to around 90 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday, and it will also be turning a little more humid as dew point temperatures climb into the 55-to-65-degree range.

Warm temperatures are also expected Friday with highs mainly in the 80s in the Northland, but there is a chance for cooler temperatures near Lake Superior as a northeast wind may develop during the day on Friday.

It’ll also be muggy on Friday with dew points in the 60s to around 70.

Note: Cooler temperatures and less humid conditions arrive this weekend with highs Saturday mostly in the 70s, cooling to the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday.