5:18 PM Sunday, July 3, 2022
There is a chance for heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding late tonight into early Monday morning over parts of the Northland, with the higher chances covering the Brainerd Lakes area, east toward Hinckley and Siren.
Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous this evening and overnight, and some of these storms may move over the same location for several hours resulting in a potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding late tonight into early Monday morning.
PWAT or precipitable water values range from around 1.25″ to 1.50″ in much of the Northland late this afternoon which means there is more than enough moisture for heavy rain to occur.
There won’t be a whole lot of change in the PWATs until Tuesday when we see a push of drier air move into the Northland.
There is some north/south uncertainty in the computer models on where the corridor of heaviest rain sets up later tonight.
NAM 3km model shows the axis of heavy rain setting up over the Twin Ports.
HREF model agrees with the NAM 3km model, although the HREF model also shows pockets of heavy rainfall over other parts of the Northland through Monday.
NWS blend of models shows the highest rain totals setting up more to the west and north of Duluth through Monday morning.
Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 9 AM Monday.
Chances for widespread severe thunderstorms is on the low side in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight and Monday with a lot less instability in our area compared to much higher instability farther to the west which is more supportive for a higher end severe threat, but with that said there still may be an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm tonight and Monday mainly over western/southern portions of the Northland, or roughly south of Highway 2.
Independence Day forecast
Scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are possible in the Northland with dry hours mixed in from late Monday morning through Monday evening.
Simulated radar forecast valid 10 AM Monday to 11 PM Monday.
It is going to be a cool Independence Day near Lake Superior with temperatures only in the 50s, but warmer conditions are likely about 20-30 miles inland from Lake Superior.
The week ahead will feature periodic rain and thunderstorm chances in the Northland as clusters of showers and thunderstorms track up and around an upper-level ridge (heat dome) which will be centered well to our south this week.
Trying to pinpoint a day that is dry or mainly dry in this type of pattern is difficult, but currently it looks like the midweek time frame (Tuesday-Wednesday) may end up mostly dry in our area.
The aforementioned ridge is forecast to retrograde to the west later this week as it stretches from the Western High Plains to the Southern Rockies. This type of pattern will keep the upper Midwest in a northwest flow aloft, but this also means the core of the intense heat stays well to the south of the Northland this week with daytime highs mostly in the 70s to around 80 in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Friday, but a persistent NE wind crossing the colder than average water of Lake Superior will lead to much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior for much of the week ahead with highs in the 50s to around 60 expected.
500mb height anomaly valid through July 11, 2022.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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