5:51 PM Wednesday, July 6, 2022
- Patchy fog is possible once again tonight near Lake Superior, but the fog shouldn’t be as dense or widespread compared to the last few nights.
- Thursday is shaping up to be a pretty warm day with muggy conditions as well with dew points in the 60s to around 70.
- A gusty NE wind with cooler/less humid conditions return Thursday evening and Friday.
- Warmer temperatures return this weekend.
- A risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday.
It took most of the day for the low clouds/fog to burn off over the southwest arm of Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports area, but sunshine finally became abundant by mid-afternoon, but there continues to be some patchy fog and low clouds moving southwest across western Lake Superior late this afternoon, and it’s possible that some of this will move back onshore at times tonight.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday afternoon, July 6, 2022.
Highs Thursday are forecast to range from the mid 70s to low-mid 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin which is near normal to slightly above normal for this time of the year.
Temperatures should warm up close to 80 in Duluth (even near Lake Superior) on Thursday, but a stronger NE wind and cooler temperatures return by late Thursday afternoon or evening with highs Friday and Saturday falling back into the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior, while highs inland remain in the 70s to around 80 Friday and Saturday.
A cold front will move S-SE through the Northland on Thursday with a chance for a few isolated showers accompanying this front.
The potential for a few thunderstorms is also there Thursday, but instability along with winds aloft and wind shear look unfavorable for any strong or severe thunderstorms in our area.
18z NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast valid through 10 PM Thursday.
Rainfall forecast through Thursday evening
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY
Ingredients appear to be coming together for a potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms in much of the Northland (yellow area on map) Sunday/Sunday night.
A warm front and cold front are forecast to move east across the upper Midwest on Sunday with southerly low-level winds transporting warm, humid and unstable air northward into our area while stronger winds aloft out of the west result in more favorable wind shear for organized storms late this weekend.
Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in the Northland next Monday and Tuesday as an upper-level trough digs SE into the Great Lakes, but the threat for severe weather will probably be lower early next week with more pulse type storms expected where storms develop then spit out an outflow of cooler air which in turn weakens the storm, then the whole process starts all over again.
A large heat dome (ridge) remains over the central and southern US today, but this ridge will retrograde into the western US/Rockies this weekend into next week.
A Ring of Fire pattern continues today but it has shifted more to the south compared to 24 hours ago with storm clusters today favoring the Rockies/western High Plains, and the Ohio Valley and southeast US.
Watch the evolution of this pattern change between this Friday and next Friday.
Notice how the trough in northeast Canada digs farther south, while the ridge shifts farther northwest, this is important since we may see more frequent shots of very warm to hot temperatures in the upper Midwest and Northland beginning later next week (around or after July 15) should this pattern change verify.
A look at the current fire situation in Alaska.
Currently there are 459 active fires burning in Alaska.
Icons on the image below represent fire locations with the color of the icons representing the size of the fire.
Here’s a visible satellite loop centered on Alaksa (Fairbanks area) which shows a mix of smoke plumes and clouds today.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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