3:33 PM Tuesday, July 19, 2022
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior, this watch is in effect until 10 PM Tuesday evening.
Primary threats include
-Large hail of quarter size to ping pong ball size (1″-1.50″ diameter) with isolated very large hail events to hen egg size (2″ diameter) possible.
-Damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible.
-An isolated tornado or two possible.
This severe thunderstorm watch includes the following cities in the Northland…International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Moose Lake, Cloquet, Duluth, Hibbing, Ely, Cook, Orr, Crane Lake, Two Harbors, Isabella, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, Superior, Solon Springs, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Butternut, Hurley, Gile, Upson, Hayward, and Winter.
Radar loop ending 3:25 PM Tuesday, July 19, 2022.
Not much on the radar at the moment in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but that may start to change by 5 PM today.
Here’s a look at the latest HRRR model run (19z/2 PM) simulated radar forecast through 10 PM this evening — The potential for showers and thunderstorms is highest through early this evening with chances diminishing by mid to late evening or in the 8-10 PM time frame.
Here comes our potential troublemaker over the next few hours as a cold front continues to lift ENE through the Northland while it interacts with a warm, humid, and unstable air mass.
There is also a very strong upper level low/trough which continues to move east out of the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest this afternoon/evening. This upper-level system combined with the surface system will enhance the forcing in the atmosphere which should help to generate some thunderstorms through this evening in parts of the Northland.
One potential issue, and it may end up being a major issue for thunderstorm/severe weather development are these very warm temperatures aloft, with 700mb temps of +12 to +15C covering much of the Northland this afternoon, but the cap is weaker across northern Minnesota (north of Highway 2) and that area may end up being the spot where we see most of the thunderstorms and possible severe weather through early this evening. The cap is strongest in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin and the risk for thunderstorms and severe weather is lower for these areas.
A surge of much drier air is found behind this system this afternoon while a very humid air mass remains in place out ahead of this system today.
A look at today’s system via Goes-16 visible satellite imagery.
Tuesday, July 19, 2022.
And a water vapor loop from Tuesday, July 19, 2022.
A very impressive looking system considering the time of the year.
Thanks for reading!
Tim