5:18 PM Monday, July 25, 2022
Two cold fronts will be moving through the Northland over the next few days with one front moving through Tuesday afternoon-evening, and the other on Wednesday. These cold fronts will be connected to another strong mid and upper-level low-pressure system which will dig SE toward the upper Great Lakes region on Wednesday.
Occasional scattered coverage rains along with a few thunderstorms are likely in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain on Wednesday focusing mostly during the afternoon-early evening.
High temperatures through Friday will continue to run near normal to slightly below normal for late July with daytime highs mostly in the 70s in the Northland. Slightly warmer temperatures are possible this weekend with high temps possibly reaching or exceeding 80 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.
A look at rainfall totals and the departure from normal for July 2022 (thru 4 PM on the 25th)
In general, rainfall this month has been above normal in far northern Minnesota, to below normal in much of the rest of the Northland, with the Brainerd area running >2″ below normal this month.
International Falls, MN: 3.88″, +0.51″ above normal (115% of normal)
Hibbing, MN: 2.50″, -0.77″ below normal (76% of normal)
Duluth, MN: 2.44″, -0.84″ below normal (74% of normal)
Ashland, WI: 2.01″, -1.13″ below normal (64% of normal
Brainerd, MN: 1.65″, -2.04″ below normal (45% of normal)
500mb low digging SE across Ontario on Wednesday is forecast to be around -3.4 sigma per GFS model forecast. So, this looks be another strong system compared to what we normally see at this time of year.
A few isolated showers are possible early Tuesday morning, but a greater chance for scattered showers arrives during the day Tuesday spreading from west to east across the Northland. Showers are expected to end from west to east Tuesday evening.
Note: Rain chances for Duluth are greatest Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening, but isolated showers can’t be ruled out Tuesday morning.
Here’s a look at a few different computer model simulated radar forecasts for Tuesday.
18z NAM 3km model valid Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night.
18z HRRR model valid Midnight tonight to Midnight tomorrow night.
As one strong upper-level system moves away (Quebec province) another one is already digging S-SE into northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba this afternoon per Goes-16 water vapor imagery, and this upper-level system will be affecting the Northland’s weather through Thursday.
Near to slightly above normal (gray and green) rainfall is expected this week in northern Minnesota, while below normal (brown) rainfall is expected this week from eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
This July has been about as normal as a July can get in Duluth when it comes to the temperatures, with almost the same amount of below normal days compared to above normal days through July 24th.
10 days so far this month with a high temperature of 80 or warmer in Duluth, normal in July is 12 days.
Here’s a look at the monthly average temperature and departure from normal for July 2022 (thru the 24th)
Brainerd, MN: 71.5 F, +1.8 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: 66.9 F, normal
Ashland, WI: 66.2 F, -0.2 degrees below normal
International Falls, MN: 66.0 F, +1.3 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: 64.2 F, +0.7 degrees above normal
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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