5:49 PM Thursday, August 18, 2022
It’ll take a few more days, but the pattern we’ve been in this week will break down eventually.
More chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from tonight through Saturday, although the most widespread coverage of rain should be tonight and Friday, with rains on Saturday being more widely scattered in coverage and come Sunday we should be mostly dry across the entire Northland.
High temperatures won’t vary much through Sunday, with daytime highs mostly in the 70s, but a more pronounced NE wind is expected near Lake Superior Friday and Saturday which will help keep high temps in the upper 50s to middle 60s closer to Lake Superior. Note: We may also see the return of patchy fog in the Northland especially during the overnight and morning time frame over the next few days.
An updated look at rainfall totals for August 2022 thru 4 PM on the 18th.
Duluth, MN: 2.72″
Departure: +0.58″ above normal
Brainerd, MN: 1.91″
Departure: +0.08″ above normal
International Falls, MN: 1.72″
Departure: +0.12″ above normal
Hibbing, MN: 1.64″
Departure: -0.11″ below normal
Ashland, WI: 1.52″
Departure: -0.57″ below normal
Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding are possible through this evening across north-central and northeast Minnesota (blue outlined area on map) especially where thunderstorms merge, sit or train for a couple hours per update from the Weather Prediction Center.
HRRR model radar forecast through 10 AM Friday.
It’s been a messy precipitation pattern over the Northland this week, with pockets of heavy rainfall totals on the order of 2 inches to as much as 6 inches across portions of north central and northeast Minnesota, and also around the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin, while other parts of the Northland have seen much lower rainfall totals so far this week.
Here’s the 72-Hour Rainfall Analysis ending 12 PM Thursday, August 18, 2022.
24-Hour Rainfall Reports for August 17-18, 2022, ending between 7-9 AM on the 18th.
Source: NWS Duluth, MN
2.5 SE Tamarack, MN: 3.35″
Isabella, MN: 2.87″
3 E Wright, MN: 2.70″
2.4 W Kettle River, MN: 2.53″
0.4 ENE Sturgeon Lake, MN: 2.41″
8.2 NNE McGregor, MN: 2.12″
4.5 NNE Cloquet, MN: 2.10″
2.0 WNW Superior, WI: 2.05″
0.6 W Swan River, MN: 1.89″
7.0 SW Duluth, MN: 1.58″
10.5 SE Grand Rapids, MN: 1.26″
Hill City, MN: 1.24″
Moose Lake, MN: 1.20″
0.8 S Askov, MN: 1.03″
4.9 NE Tofte, MN: 0.84″
Here are some additional 24-Hour Rainfall Reports through 4 PM Thursday, August 18, 2022.
Source: MesoWest
Ashland, WI: 0.87″
Walker, MN: 0.69″
Hayward, WI: 0.63″
Hinckley, MN: 0.57″
Aitkin, MN: 0.44″
International Falls, MN: 0.44″
Winter, WI: 0.43″
Solon Springs, WI: 0.35″
Siren, WI: 0.35″
Brainerd, MN: 0.31″
Longville, MN: 0.28″
Spooner, WI: 0.25″
Webb Lake, WI: 0.24″
South Range, WI: 0.16″
Danbury, WI: 0.10″
Cable, WI: 0.07″
Duluth Airport: 0.01″
Finally starting to see the upper-level trough/low over eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba begin to drop south into the Northern Plains this afternoon, this system will then dig southeastward through the upper Midwest Friday before exiting to the southeast toward the southern Great Lakes region by Sunday.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Thursday, August 18, 2022.
A wide range in rainfall totals will continue through Saturday with an additional 0.10″ to 0.75″ of rain expected in the Northland, but there will be pockets of much higher rainfall totals which could reach 2-4″ in isolated spots.
The highest rain amounts continue to favor western/southern portions of the Northland with generally lower rain amounts for the North Shore and Minnesota Arrowhead.
HRRR model radar forecast valid 11 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday.
The one area in the Northland that continues to need some rain is in far eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin (orange and red on map) this is where soil moisture is running just 2 to 10% of normal going into today (August 18).
Thanks for reading!
Tim