5:19 PM Thursday, September 8, 2022
*Will stay dry in the Northland through early this evening with warm temperatures and humid conditions with lingering haze and wildfire smoke along with gusty south-southwest winds.
*Rain chances increase mid to late evening and during the overnight with scattered thunderstorms also expected, with the thunderstorm potential highest from northeast and east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin where isolated strong to severe storms are possible with a threat for large hail up to 1.50″ in diameter (ping pong ball size) along with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.
*Occasional rain continues during the day Friday from northeast and east-central Minnesota into all of northwest Wisconsin while northern Minnesota stays rain-free through the day.
*Mostly dry weather is likely both Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs in the mid 60s to around 70 in the Northland.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Friday.
Rainfall totals ranging from around 0.50″ to 1″ are possible in northeast and east-central Minnesota and in much of northwest Wisconsin through Friday afternoon, but isolated 2″+ totals are possible especially in far northwest Wisconsin (South Shore area)
DROUGHT UPDATE
Very dry soil moisture conditions continue near the head of Lake Superior from Duluth south to the Holyoke and Bruno area, east along the South Shore with soil moisture values ranging from <2% to 5% in the dark red and red areas as of September 8, 2022.
On the other hand, far northern Minnesota continues to have more moist conditions with soil moisture values ranging from 70% to 90% in the green colored areas.
No major changes in this week’s drought monitor.
0.97% of Minnesota is in Severe Drought, unchanged from last week.
8% of Minnesota is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
25% of Minnesota is Abnormally Dry, this is up from 20% last week.
6% of Wisconsin is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
18% of Wisconsin is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
1 week drought monitor class change in the Northland for the period September 6, 2022, compared to August 30, 2022 — Yellow area represents worsening drought by 1 class, while the gray area represents no change.
A larger view of the Midwest showing the 1-week drought monitor change from September 6, 2022, to August 30, 2022.
Lingering wildfire smoke and haze will be found over the Northland tonight and Friday with improving conditions expected Saturday.
There is a chance for moderate air quality issues at times tonight and also on Friday with some of the smoke aloft possibly mixing down to the surface.
HRRR smoke model forecast through 1 PM Saturday.
Temperatures in the Northland are running +10 to +15 degrees warmer than normal for early September, but temperatures this afternoon are nowhere near the record high temperatures for September 8th — See list below.
Ashland, WI: 97 set in 1931
Brainerd, MN: 96 set in 1931
Duluth, MN: 92 set in 1931
International Falls, MN: 92 set in 1931
Hibbing, MN: 88 set in 2002
- The average date for last 80-degree or warmer temperature in Duluth is September 15 (1991-2020 climate period), or September 11 if you go all the way back to when weather records began in Duluth (1874).
- In 2021, Duluth’s last 80-degree or warmer temperature occurred on September 19. The latest date for last 80-degree or warmer temperature on record in Duluth is October 21 (set in 1901)
Temperatures behind a cold front across the northern Plains are running some-20 to -40 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to this time on Tuesday, so this is quite an impressive cold front.
Note that narrow corridor of upper 50s- and 60-degree temps over eastern Montana and western North Dakota this afternoon, that is the air mass which will move over the Northland on Friday.
Check out the temps in Nebraska this afternoon, nearly the entire state has temperatures in the 90s, with 100+ degree temps covering central portions of Nebraska this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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