5:34 PM Wednesday, October 12, 2022
A step-down process from yesterday’s 80 or near 80-degree warmth to snow is well underway across the Northland today.
Temperatures will continue to drop as an even colder air mass settles over the area with highs Thursday and Friday only in the 30s and 40s.
Temperatures aloft will be more than cold enough to support frozen precipitation the next few days with 850mb temperatures decreasing to around -5 to -7C, while 925mb temperatures decrease to around -1 to -3C. Thickness values will continue to drop as well, going from around 532 to 536m late this afternoon to around 522 to 528m by Friday morning. All of these parameters support snow as the main precipitation type in much of the Northland, even near Lake Superior for late Thursday night into Friday morning, but what type of precipitation reaches the surface during that time will ultimately depend on the surface temperature, if temps remain in the 30–34-degree range, then will likely see mostly snow, but if temperatures are just a degree or two warmer, up around 35 or 36 degrees, then precipitation will probably be in the form of rain. The temperatures will be more of an issue closer to Lake Superior as is often the case with early season snowfalls, but away from Lake Superior it does look cold enough for mostly snow to fall Friday morning.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY
The greatest chances for sticking snow will come Thursday night into Friday morning.
Scattered rain showers will continue in the Northland this evening with snow or rain showers overnight through the day Thursday.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Thursday
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Snow showers Thursday night into Friday morning changing back to rain or a mix of rain/snow showers Friday afternoon.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Another strong cold front has swept through the upper Midwest with temperatures this afternoon running 25 to nearly 40 degrees colder compared to the temperatures from Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures are mostly in the 40s and 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today which is near to slightly below normal for this time of year.
Here’s the source region of our upcoming period of cold weather in the Northland.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain, lightning, some hail and gusty winds moved across parts of the Northland Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.
Rainfall totals varied considerably last night with some spots picking up anywhere from 0.50″ to nearly 2″ of rain per radar estimates (blue and purple colors)
| 24-Hour Rainfall Reports for October 11-12, 2022 (ending 4 PM on the 12th) Source: MesoWest Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.57″ Saginaw, MN: 0.26″ Glidden, WI: 0.25″ Cloquet, MN: 0.21″ Ely, MN: 0.21″ McGregor, MN: 0.19″ Clam Lake, WI: 0.17″ Hayward, WI: 0.16″ Moose Lake, MN: 0.16″ Solon Springs, WI: 0.15″ Esko, MN: 0.13″ Isabella, MN: 0.13″ Poplar, WI: 0.12″ Ashland, WI: 0.11″ Minong, WI: 0.11″ Washburn, WI: 0.10″ Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.07″ Hinckley, MN: 0.06″ Aitkin, MN: 0.05″ Bigfork, MN: 0.04″ Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.04″ Two Harbors, MN: 0.02″ Duluth Airport: 0.02″ Brainerd, MN: 0.01″ Grand Marais, MN: 0.01″ |
A textbook mid latitude cyclone on full display across the region today!
Here’s an animation of the above image.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop ending 12:56 PM Wednesday, October 12, 2022.
Goes-16 water vapor loop for October 12, 2022 (ending 5:10 PM)
Seeing some air quality issues in much of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin today due to some haze and wildfire smoke over the area with AQI values in the moderate range (yellow)
LONG RANGE FORECAST
Computer models are indicating a pretty big shift in the pattern later next week.
In the short term the pattern remains the same with deep troughing/lower 500mb heights stretching from central Canada to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley while an upper-level ridge with higher 500mb heights remain anchored over western Canada and the Pacific northwest.
Colder than average near and under the trough, and warmer than average under the ridge through early next week.
But later next week we may see quite a shakeup in the pattern with troughing setting up much farther west while ridging sets up farther to the east.
And the temperature pattern reverses big time later next week, with a large area of potentially much warmer than normal temps across the central and eastern US with below normal temps centered over the western US.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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