Dry and Mild through the middle of next week; Model chaos late next week

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5:17 PM Friday, October 28, 2022

A very dry weather pattern will continue in the Northland through at least the middle of next week, but some precipitation is possible as we get into late next week but there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the computer models with how the pattern sets up late next week.

Any precipitation that we do see in the Northland late next week should mainly be in the form of rain the way it looks now.

Precipitation Anomalies for October 2022 (thru the 28th)

Duluth, MN: -1.88″ below normal
Brainerd, MN: -1.73″ below normal
Ashland, WI: -1.68″ below normal
Hibbing, MN: -1.35″ below normal
International Falls, MN: -1.32″ below normal

The rest of this month will be dry in the Northland with any precipitation chances holding off until late next week.

There is plenty of cold air lurking well to the north with temperatures as cold as -26 F at Eureka, Nunavut Canada this afternoon while widespread teens and 20s covered northwest Canada and Alaska today, but with winds aloft coming out of the west (zonal flow) this cold air won’t be able to penetrate very far south through the middle of next week. Some changes to the pattern are possible late next week which could allow some of this cold air to push farther south/east, but just how far south/east is unknown at this time as computer models are showing wild swings from one day to the next.

Note: High temperatures in the Northland will range from the mid 50s to low to mid 60s Saturday through at least next Wednesday.

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Halloween Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Since 2000 — There’s only been one Halloween with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees. That occurred in 2000 with a high of 61.

Going back to 1874 — There’s only been 12 Halloweens with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees.

Coldest Halloween on record: High of 25 in 1951
Warmest Halloween on record: High of 74 in 1950

Here’s a look at high temperatures at Duluth, Minnesota on Halloween from 2010 through 2021.

2010: 42 F
2011: 48 F
2012: 49 F
2013: 46 F
2014: 38 F
2015: 45 F
2016: 55 F
2017: 27 F
2018: 42 F
2019: 34 F
2020: 46 F
2021: 44 F

Note: The normal high in Duluth on Halloween is 45 degrees.

Halloween 2022 will likely be the warmest Halloween we’ve seen in Duluth since 2016, and may rival the high of 61 back in 2000.

Thanks for reading!

Tim

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