6:16 PM Wednesday, November 2, 2022
The Northland will remain firmly in the warm sector of a low-pressure system tonight and Thursday, but a cold front moving east out of the Dakotas will move through the Northland from west to east Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning, and once this front moves through will see temperatures drop toward more seasonal levels for this time of the year, but this cooling trend will be brief as it looks like will warm up quite a bit again during the early to mid-part of next week when we could see 50 to even 60 degree high temperatures return to parts of the Northland.
-Will stay dry in the Northland tonight and Thursday morning, but chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms do increase Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Severe weather is not expected with any thunderstorm that develops, but a few lightning strikes, and brief heavy downpours are possible.
-There is a slight chance for a little snow, or a rain/snow mix late Thursday night or Friday morning mainly over parts of northern Minnesota, but accumulations if any should remain <1″.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Precipitation totals ranging from around 0.10″ to as much as 0.50″ are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Friday morning.
Snowfall forecast through 7 AM Friday.
| Another day of record warmth in the Northland today. Here are the new record high temperatures set for November 2nd — Today’s records were shattered by some 5 to as much as 10 degrees, that is incredible! Ashland, WI: New record high: 76 Old record high: 70 set in 1938 and 1944 Brainerd, MN: New record high: 75 Old record high: 65 set in 1917, 1981 and 2015 Hibbing, MN: New record high: 72 Old record high: 66 set in 1978 and 1951 International Falls, MN New record high: 71 Old record high: 67 set in 1978 Duluth, MN: Tied the record high for November 2 of 71 today, this record was set in 1903. In addition to the new record highs which were set today, we also saw temperatures today which tied for the warmest or a top 5 warmest temperature ever recorded during the month of November. Brainerd – Tied with Nov. 2020 for warmest temperature in November (75 F) Hibbing – Tied with Nov. 2020 for warmest temperature in November (72 F) Ashland – 2nd warmest temperature in November (warmest is 78 set in 2020) Duluth – 3rd warmest temperature in November (warmest is 75 F set in 2020) International Falls – 4th warmest temperature in November (warmest 74 set in 2020) |
A second low pressure system still looks to lift quickly northeast out of the Southern Plains on Saturday, but computer models are all over the place on the track of this system.
Rain is possible on Saturday in parts of the Northland if this low tracks far enough to the NW, but the trend in the computer models today is for this low to move more to the east which would mean less rain for most of the Northland on Saturday.
Computer models continue to show a snowier pattern eventually developing across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest including for us here in the Northland over the next 2 weeks.
Here’s the GEFS model snowfall accumulation forecast through 6 AM Friday, November 18, 2022.
Blue colors represent snow totals of 2″+.
There are only 4 out of 20 members which show <2″ of snow in Duluth through November 18, the other 16 members show at least 2″ of snow for Duluth over the next 2 weeks.
The cold air continues to build to our NW. Now it’s just a matter of when does the pattern break to allow this cold air to push into the Northland. I don’t see the pattern breaking at least through the middle of next week, but after that will see.
Subzero temperatures, 70+ degree temperatures, and a Hurricane (Martin) on the weather map today.
This is pretty crazy!
Look at how much warmer the temperatures have trended over the last 2 days for next week across the Northland (black outlined area)
There are colder risks which continue to show up in model guidance, but those colder risks will probably hold off until later next week or after November 9th the way it looks now.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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