5:28 PM Wednesday, November 9, 2022
A strong fall storm will impact the upper Midwest through early Friday morning. This storm will bring multiple hazards to the area, including heavy snow and blizzard conditions NW of the storm track to a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms SE of the storm track. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible in between, while freezing rain with some ice accumulations are expected in parts of northern Minnesota, oh and last but not least we’re looking at a northeast gale event on Lake Superior on Thursday with waves of 8 to 14 feet with wind gusts to 40 knots.
A regional view of the current winter weather headlines, they include a Blizzard Warning for parts of northern South Dakota, central and northeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota; and an Ice Storm Warning for parts of central and northeast South Dakota.
I haven’t seen any strong signals showing up in the computer models last night or today that makes me want to change my snowfall forecast — This forecast was released Tuesday afternoon.
Snowfall amounts could end up lower, however, across northern Minnesota if it takes longer for the wintry mix to change over to snow on Thursday.
Note: I still think will see about a trace to an inch of snow in Duluth between late Thursday night and Friday afternoon.
Freezing rain and sleet is expected on Thursday in parts of northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead of Minnesota with ice accumulations ranging from around 0.05″ to 0.20″. Note: If more significant ice accumulations develop, then we may see an ice storm warning issued for parts of northern Minnesota for Thursday.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
Computer models continue to target portions of northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota for a corridor of 2″+ rain totals through Thursday with a possibility for up to 3″ or even 4″ of rain.
There continues to be a marginal risk for flash flooding in the green area on the maps below for tonight and Thursday.
| 24-Hour Precipitation Reports for November 8-9, 2022 (ending 4 PM on the 9th) Source: MesoWest French River, MN: 0.82″ Spooner, WI: 0.69″ Hayward, WI: 0.55″ The Bay of Grand Marais, MN: 0.53″ Isabella, MN: 0.49″ Glidden, WI: 0.41″ Clam Lake, WI: 0.40″ Minong, WI: 0.37″ Ely, MN: 0.37″ Esko, MN: 0.36″ Duluth Airport: 0.34″ Two Harbors, MN: 0.34″ Siren, WI: 0.33″ Washburn, WI: 0.32″ Saginaw, MN: 0.32″ Solon Springs, WI: 0.32″ Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.32″ Duluth Sky Harbor Airport: 0.31″ Cloquet, MN: 0.31″ Poplar, WI: 0.30″ South Range, WI: 0.29″ Winter, WI: 0.29″ Moose Lake, MN: 0.27″ Hinckley, MN: 0.26″ International Falls, MN: 0.24″ Hill City, MN: 0.23″ Ashland, WI: 0.22″ Longville, MN: 0.20″ McGregor, MN: 0.18″ Grand Rapids, MN: 0.18″ Cable, WI: 0.17″ Brainerd, MN: 0.16″ Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.15″ Littlefork, MN: 0.14″ Webb Lake, WI: 0.11″ Cass Lake, MN: 0.10″ Walker, MN: 0.09″ Bigfork, MN: 0.08″ Pine River, MN: 0.04″ |
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES
Here’s the 18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 12 PM Friday.
Green – Rain
Blue – Snow
Purple/Pink – Wintry Mix and Freezing Rain
A more detailed look at precipitation types/timing per 12z HREF model.
This evening through Midnight tonight – Rain with embedded heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms from east-central and northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Far northern Minnesota stays mostly dry this evening.
Overnight through 6 AM Thursday – A wintry mix including some freezing rain (icing potential) develops in far northern Minnesota. Rain with embedded heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms continue from east-central to northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
6 AM to Noon Thursday – A wintry mix including some freezing rain and icing potential continues across far northern Minnesota while also spreading into the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Rain with embedded heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms farther south including for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Noon to 6 PM Thursday – Wintry mix changes over to snow across northern Minnesota while a wintry mix including some freezing rain and icing potential continues for the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Scattered rain showers for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
6 PM Thursday to Midnight Friday – Snow across northern Minnesota.
Note: Precipitation will be in the form of rain in Duluth through the day Thursday, then as colder air moves in from the west/southwest Thursday night will see a gradual changeover from rain to snow, but this probably won’t occur until sometime Thursday evening (after 7 PM), or possibly as late as early Friday morning. Some light snow and flurries will continue on Friday along with much colder temperatures.
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, THUNDERSTORMS, SYNOPTIC SETUP
Strong northeasterly winds will be developing near Lake Superior and in the Twin Ports later tonight with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 30 mph. Winds increase even further on Thursday with wind gusts of up to 35 to 55 mph expected from about 7 AM to 7 PM Thursday.
HRRR model wind gust forecast valid Midnight tonight to 9 PM Thursday.
A few thunderstorms will continue across northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota tonight through mid-afternoon Thursday with the greatest chances for thunderstorms in the darker green, blue and purple colors on the animation below.
A cold frontal boundary will be turning nearly stationary tonight across the upper Midwest as low-pressure heads NE out of the western High Plains. This low is forecast to be over southwest Minnesota around 6 AM Thursday, then is forecast to become more elongated from central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin by Thursday evening.
Goes-16 water vapor loop is a busy one today.
A strong fall storm moving east across the Rockies while Tropical Storm Nicole gets closer to the east coast of Florida early this evening.
A big-time temperature contrast helping to fuel a fall storm over the next 24-36 hours.
Temperatures were around 80 degrees in southern Nebraska to the lower 20s in northwest Nebraska this afternoon, with even colder temperatures ranging from 0 to -10 F sitting over Saskatchewan this afternoon.
The amount of moisture for this time of year is pretty impressive as we’re seeing dew points in the 50s to lower 60s as far north as southern/eastern Minnesota and central/southern Wisconsin this afternoon.
Thanks for reading!
Tim