Snow on Saturday (highest totals along the North Shore) A significant storm possible Dec. 13-15; Arctic flood gates open following next week’s storm; Low Temperature Reports from Thursday AM

Published by

Timothy Burr

on

December 8, 2022

6:03 PM Thursday, December 8, 2022

I’ve picked up a few new followers recently on Facebook, and I’ve also noticed that my blog has had quite an increase in views over the past few days, so hello to all!

Some may have noticed that my background theme has been changing around a bit lately as I’m trying to find a new layout/theme for my blog, but I think I’ve finally found the one I plan on sticking with, so will see how that goes.

Let’s talk weather

Some snow on the way for Saturday with the highest amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior
There is a potential for some patchy fog late tonight through Friday morning, and again Friday night-Saturday and this is when we may also see some patchy freezing drizzle
A major storm could impact the Northland next week (Dec. 13-15) time frame

Saturday Snow Chances

An inverted trough will move across the area on Saturday bringing some snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Heavy snow amounts are unlikely with this system, but there could be enough snow to cause some travel issues especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior where terrain enhanced snowfall is likely with ESE winds crossing Lake Superior.

Most of the snow on Saturday falls during the day with snow tapering off Saturday evening/overnight.

18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Midnight Saturday to Midnight Sunday.

Here’s my snowfall forecast for Saturday.

2 to 4 inches possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

For Duluth – About 1 to 2 inches of snow.

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Update on Next Weeks’ Storm

A large and slow-moving mid/upper-level trough and low is forecast to move ashore in the Pacific northwest later this weekend. This system is then expected to track ENE through the Rockies and into the Plains and Midwest and eventually into the eastern Great Lakes by late next week.

This is the system that could impact the Northland in a big way during the December 13-15 time frame.

500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid December 11-16, 2022

Lower heights/troughs in blue and green

Higher heights/ridging in orange, red and gray

Ensemble models continue to be in good agreement as they all show a strong area of low pressure moving northeast out of eastern Colorado on Monday, however, there continues to be some differences on timing, and just how far north the area of low pressure will track, with the CMCE (Canadian ensemble model) furthest north, while the EPS and GEFS models have trended further south, especially the EPS model compared to 24 hours ago.

Note – One of the main takeaways from today’s model runs is that this system has slowed down quite a bit meaning that a lot of the precipitation that we may see in the Northland would occur more in that Tuesday night to Thursday time frame. Whether or not these slower trends continue the next few days remains to be seen.

All three ensemble models are still showing a significant amount of QPF (precipitation) across the Northland next week, centered on the Tuesday-Thursday time frame, and this has been consistent now for a few model runs.

What type of precipitation we see in the Northland will depend on the storm track, and how much warm air is drawn north ahead of this system.

Heavy snow is possible, but so is the potential for some rain and sleet, and a dry slot could also affect some parts of the Northland which could cut down on precipitation totals.

The next few days will continue to be all about the model trends on how they handle this system, but hopefully by Sunday the models will converge on a solution in regard to timing and precipitation types and amounts.