4:39 PM Sunday, January 15, 2023
A messy system will move northeast out of the central Plains tonight and Monday. This system will bring accumulating wet snow, rain and a wintry mix to much of the Northland beginning Monday morning with precipitation continuing into Monday night and Tuesday morning before coming to an end Tuesday afternoon.
Precipitation on Monday should mostly be in the form of rain in northwest Wisconsin with pockets of a wintry mix expected, while anything from wet snow to rain and even some patchy freezing rain is expected in northeast Minnesota during the day Monday.
Precipitation should gradually transition to all snow Monday evening/overnight with snow then coming to an end Tuesday afternoon.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Midnight tonight to 6 PM Tuesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry Mix (pink)
Most of the accumulating snow with this system looks to fall Monday evening through Tuesday morning, although some wet snow is still expected during the day Monday especially in northeast Minnesota, but snowfall amounts should be under an inch.
This will be a wet and heavy snow with snow to liquid ratios of less than 10:1, and more in that 6:1 to 8:1 range.
For Duluth: 2 to 3 inches of snow is possible from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.
SREF snowfall plume for Duluth.
Total ice accumulations ranging from around 0.01″ to 0.05″ are possible in much of the Northland Monday and Monday night.
Winter Weather Advisory (purple area) in effect from 4 AM to Noon Monday for a portion of northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Ashland, Glidden, Butternut, Hurley, Mercer and Gile. Plan on slippery road conditions due to some snow and freezing rain Monday morning.
An active week ahead as two low pressure systems move NE out of the Rockies.
1) Monday-Tuesday
2) Late Wednesday-Thursday
The first system will impact the Northland more than the second system due to a farther north storm track with the lead system, while the second system mid to late week takes a track farther to the south the way it looks now.
EPS model 500mb forecast valid 6 PM Monday to 6 AM Friday.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THIS WEEK
A few thunderstorms are possible Monday and Monday evening from far southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin, much of central and eastern Iowa, west-central Illinois into northern and eastern Missouri, but severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.
There is a greater chance for some severe thunderstorms on Wednesday stretching from eastern Texas through much of Louisiana into west-central Mississippi.
The temperature climbed above freezing in Duluth today, Sunday, January 15, 2023 — The last time the temperature was above freezing in Duluth was on December 29th with a high of 35.
Approaching 3 weeks since the last time Duluth had a subzero temperature. Low of -3 on December 26, 2022.
There’s no doubt about it our very mild January will continue in the week ahead with well above average temperatures likely across the Northland.
COLDER RISKS NEXT WEEK
But a flip to colder temperatures remains possible the week of January 22 as widespread below average temperatures cover the western U.S. into the upper Midwest, while above average temperatures continue from the southern to eastern U.S.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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