6:12 PM Monday, January 16, 2023
It’s been a dreary mid-January day thanks to an area of low pressure which continues to lift northeast out of central Iowa this afternoon.
There is a lack of cold air with this system, so the precipitation that we’ve seen in the Northland today has varied widely but overall, we saw some sleet, freezing rain and rain this morning transition to mostly rain and drizzle this afternoon in most areas, although temperatures have remained just cold enough to support a continuation of wet snow or a mix in northern Minnesota this afternoon.
Here’s a look at the system affecting the region today on Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase Satellite Imagery (loop time ends 4:41 PM CT, Monday, January 16, 2023)
Temperatures are running about 1 to 3 degrees above freezing in the Northland this afternoon, and these temperatures will only a fall a few degrees into the 29-to-33-degree range tonight, but that should be enough of a temperature drop to cause some hazardous travel conditions later this evening into Tuesday morning.
Note — A record high temperature was tied at Hibbing, Minnesota on January 15, 2023, with a high of 34 degrees which ties the record high for the date which was set in 2010.
Temperatures a few thousand feet in the atmosphere are also running on the mild side considering its mid-January, with 850mb temperatures of just -1 to -4C in the Northland late today.
I did make some changes to my snowfall forecast for tonight.
Looking at two areas of 2-to-5-inch snow totals, one over the Arrowhead of Minnesota, the other over much of northwest Wisconsin. Overall, I think the potential to reach 5 inches of snow with this system is pretty low, but certainly can’t rule out a few locations getting to that 5-inch snow mark by Noon Tuesday, but most should end up in that 2-to-4-inch range.
For Duluth — Snowfall totals ranging from a trace to 2 inches through 12 PM Tuesday. Very marginal temperatures may lead to this being an elevation snow event where areas on top of the hill get the bulk of the snow, while locations below the hill closer to Lake Superior possibly see little to no snow. Will see how it plays out.
Snow that falls will be wet and heavy tonight through Tuesday morning, but temperatures will climb to freezing or a few degrees above freezing Tuesday afternoon so road conditions should improve by then.
Rain and a wintry mix will gradually shift over to wet snow tonight with lingering snow Tuesday diminishing from north to south during the day. Snow showers linger into Tuesday night in northwest Wisconsin.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through Midnight Tuesday night.
4 tornado reports between 2:50 and 3:03 PM today in eastern Iowa (west/north of Mount Vernon, IA)
Note — Since 1986, there have been zero January tornado warnings in Iowa, so today’s tornado warnings in Iowa are pretty rare for this time of year.
Another system tracks east-northeast out of the central Plains midweek, but this system tracks farther south compared to the one tonight.
Most of the accumulating snow with this midweek system should stay south of the Northland, with perhaps minor amounts of snow (<2″) affecting southern portions of the area, from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday night through Thursday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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