6:06 PM Friday, February 17, 2023
A few weak clippers could bring a few flurries and snow showers to parts of the Northland this weekend but little to no snow accumulation is expected and whatever snow does fall should mostly be over northern Minnesota with Sunday holding the best chance for a little snow this weekend.
A stronger clipper is then set to dive southeast into North Dakota on Monday, and this one could pack more of a punch in terms of snowfall potential, but there is uncertainty on the track of this clipper low which will determine where the main band of accumulating snow sets up.
A more northerly track to the low would bring most of the accumulating snow to northern Minnesota and Arrowhead with lower snow totals farther south including in the Twin Ports, but a more southerly storm track would bring most of the snow to central/eastern Minnesota, Twin Ports into northern Wisconsin with lower snow totals across northern Minnesota, and if the low goes even farther south than central Minnesota, then snow totals would be reduced in most of the Northland.
Early snowfall estimates for the clipper on Monday look to be somewhere in that 2-5″ range where the main band of snow sets up, and most of the snow looks to fall during the day Monday into Monday evening then tapering off later Monday evening/overnight.
More snow chances mid to late next week
Computer models continue to be in good agreement on the overall pattern for next week with a massive and strong ridge building north into the southeast U.S. while widespread/deep troughing sets up across the western U.S.
Waves of low pressure ejecting out of that trough over the western U.S. will likely ride along a very strong temperature gradient which will likely setup across the Plains and Midwest next week.
Differences exist in the computer models with how far north these aforementioned disturbances will track next week and also on where the arctic/dry air mass will setup as it covers much of Canada into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
Note — If the colder/drier air mass pushes far enough south, then that could lead to less snow in most of the Northland mid to late next week so that will be one big thing to watch the next few days to see how the models handle that arctic air.
Bottom line is that there is a potential for a lot of snow in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin next week with a chance for snowfall storm totals for the entire week to end up in the 12-24″ range.
Wind is also going to be an issue mid to late next week with northeast winds increasing in the Twin Ports on Wednesday with strong winds continuing into Thursday. Wind gusts of 25 to 40+ mph are possible in Duluth for the middle of next week. Blowing snow could become an issue near Lake Superior next week if we do get snow.
The basic setup for next week is as follows
Upper low over Hudson Bay moves SE.
Low pressure over the Pacific northwest moves SE into the Rockies while another low moves NE out of the Baja region.
A ridge builds northwest into the southeast U.S.
A massive temperature clash setting up for the middle of next week.
Here’s a look at total precipitation forecasts using the Ensemble models (12z run from Friday)
Total precipitation (liquid equivalent) through 6 AM Friday, February 24, 2023.
Note — With a cold air mass in place, snowfall ratios should end up higher than the typical 10:1 or 12:1 range. We could be looking at ratios more in that 15:1 range or even a little higher if we get snow mid to late next week, so the amount of precipitation the models are showing could fluff up to well over 6-10″ of snow through late next week especially across southern portions of the Northland from the Twin Ports to Brainerd Lakes and into northwest Wisconsin.
EPS model: 0.70″ of QPF in Duluth.
Also of note, 34/50 EPS members crank out 6″ or more of snow in Duluth next week (ending Friday, Feb. 24) with a high-end snow amount of 12″ and a low-end snow amount of 3″.
Percentage of EPS members showing 6″ or more of snow in Duluth next week has increased from 28% on February 15th to 68% as of today’s (Feb. 17th) EPS run.
CMCE model: 0.50″ of QPF in Duluth.
GEFS model: 0.80″ of QPF in Duluth.
| Subzero temperature stats for Duluth, Minnesota Number of subzero nights for the winter of 2022-2023 (thru Feb. 17th) 23 Number of subzero nights for the winter of 2021-2022 (thru Feb. 17th) 38 6 subzero nights so far this month in Duluth compared to 12 subzero nights last February thru the 17th. Average number of subzero nights in February is 10 nights. |
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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