6:35 PM Saturday, February 18, 2023
A clipper system is forecast to move east-southeast out of northwest Canada into west-central North Dakota through central Minnesota (passing near or slightly south of Duluth late Monday afternoon/early Monday evening) to eastern Upper Michigan between Sunday and Tuesday morning.
This system is set to bring a round of accumulating snow to much of the Northland for Monday and Monday evening with snow ending late Monday night.
Much of the Northland can expect anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow on Monday, but there could be a narrow corridor of higher snow amounts which could reach 6 inches over a portion of north-central/northeast Minnesota including the North Shore of Lake Superior where some lake enhancement to the snow is possible as winds are expected to be out of the southeast based on the current track of the low.
Should see a pretty large temperature gradient with Monday’s clipper system with cold air to the north and warmer air to the south.
Forecast track of the clipper on Monday.
Currently it looks like will begin to see some snow develop across northern Minnesota late Sunday night/early Monday morning with snow expanding farther south across the rest of the Northland Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Snow wraps up from west to east Monday night.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid Midnight Monday to Midnight Tuesday.
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Monday/Monday night.
For Duluth — Snowfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible.
Major/Widespread Winter Storm expected next week
Here are the key messages from the Weather Prediction Center
Basic setup for next week’s storm
-Strong ridge shifting north into the southeast U.S. which will help draw warm/humid air northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.
-A large and deep trough which basically extends from northeast Canada through the Rockies down toward the Baja region. This trough will supply the cold air, while moisture lifting north into this cold air leads to widespread wintry weather.
One issue that may prevent us from getting a lot of snow in northeast Minnesota mid to late next week is the amount of dry air associated with an arctic air mass which will cover all of Canada into the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. Meanwhile will see deeper moisture try to push north out of the Midwest.
The battle will be on between the dry air and moisture. Which one will win out? Time will tell.
An impressive temperature gradient/baroclinic zone setting up for the middle of next week. Waves of low pressure will likely track near this temperature gradient next week.
Here’s a real early look at what I think we may see for snowfall accumulations in the Northland for mid to late next week. This is more of a heads up as to what may be coming our way but changes to this snowfall forecast are likely to occur over the next few days.
Currently it looks like the highest snow amounts will be over northwest Wisconsin into far eastern Minnesota with the least amount of snow expected to be over northern Minnesota and Arrowhead.
For Duluth — 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible from late Wednesday into Thursday, but again these totals could increase or decrease over the next few days. In addition to the potential for accumulating snow during the middle of next week will be a potential for blowing snow as northeast winds increase with gusts of 25 to 35 mph for next Wednesday and Thursday.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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