5:43 PM Sunday, February 19, 2023
- First round of snow affects the Northland on Monday.
- A second round of snow could affect parts of the Northland from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, but there is uncertainty on where this 2nd round of snow will setup with some of the models keeping it mostly south of the Northland while other models show the snow extending farther north at least to the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota and Twin Ports area.
- Third and final round of snow with the main system this week could impact portions of the Northland Wednesday into Thursday, areas most likely to be impacted by this snow is from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with a lower chance for snow later this week across northern Minnesota.
So far, we haven’t seen much snow in Duluth this month, but this will likely change this week.
Snowfall total at Duluth for February 2023 (through the 18th) 3.0″, this is -6.2″ below normal and is 48% of normal snowfall through the 18th of Feb.
Snowfall for the winter is still running well above normal at Duluth with 65.1″ of snow since December 1st, this is +20.4″ above normal through February 18th, and is 146% of normal snowfall.
Seasonal snowfall total for 2022-2023 is also running well above normal at Duluth with 83.1″ of snow since October 1st, this is +21.5″ above normal through February 18th, and is 135% of normal snowfall.
CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY
Everything remains on track for a clipper to move across the area on Monday which will bring a round of accumulating snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. There continue to be some differences regarding the track of the low on Monday, and where a corridor of higher snow amounts may set up, but overall expect a general 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Northland on Monday with an area of higher snow totals in the 4-to-6-inch range possibly setting up over a portion of north-central/northeast Minnesota (north of Duluth).
The North Shore of Lake Superior may also see higher snow totals on Monday due to southeasterly winds blowing across the lake leading to some lake enhanced snowfall.
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday. Plan on slippery road conditions and difficult travel conditions Monday into Monday night.
Snow spreads east into north-central Minnesota late tonight/early Monday morning, and then will see snow develop farther south/east across the remainder of the Northland through Monday morning. Snow ends from west to east Monday night, but some snow will likely linger along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin through Monday night.
For Duluth — Snow begins Monday morning between 5 and 8 AM. Snow ends Monday evening after 7 PM.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to 6 AM Tuesday.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for Monday’s event.
For Duluth — 2 to 4 inches of snow.
The amount of lift with Monday’s clipper looks pretty strong per model data represented by the yellow, orange and red colors on the animation below.
An area of steep mid-level lapse rates is also expected to move over the Northland on Monday which could lead to some bursts of heavier snowfall during the day.
So, despite this being a clipper system which normally wouldn’t produce much more than 2 or 3 inches of snow due to its fast movement and limited moisture, there is potential that Monday’s clipper could produce some 4, 5 or even 6″+ snow totals in portions of the Northland, mainly from north central to northeast Minnesota due to the stronger forcing and steep lapse rates moving across the area.
TUESDAY SNOW
A second round of snow could affect portions of the Northland late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night although it looks like the bulk of the accumulations with this second round of snow would remain south of our area.
European model radar forecast valid 12 PM Tuesday to 6 AM Wednesday (snow in blue colors)
Arctic air to the north, warmer spring like warmth to the south. This clash in air masses will grow even stronger in the coming days.
NW flow across the upper Midwest today will transition to SW flow by midweek as the pattern amplifies over the next few days.
Temperatures as cold as the teens and 20s below zero across central Canada this afternoon while temperatures are in the 50s as far north as central Illinois into southern Lower Michigan, with even warmer temperatures in the 70s and 80s down near the Gulf Coast region.
Key Messages from the Weather Prediction Center for the upcoming major winter storm this week
Winter Storm Watch issued for all of northwest Wisconsin and for portions of east-central and northeast Minnesota for Wednesday into Thursday. Travel could be difficult to impossible.
Larger view of the winter weather alerts that are in effect the next few days.
Winter Storm Watch (blue)
Winter Storm Warning (pink)
Wind alerts in brown colors
And of course, the winter weather advisory (purple) which is in effect for Monday in northern Minnesota.
Here’s my snowfall forecast for Wednesday through Thursday.
No changes made to my snowfall forecast based on model data I’ve seen today, but some adjustments in snow totals/gradients are possible the next few days.
For Duluth — 3 to 6 inches of snow Wednesday into Thursday. Totals could increase or decrease over the next few days. Areas of blowing snow Wednesday and Thursday with northeast winds of 25 to 45 mph.
Wind will be an issue midweek with northeast winds increasing with gusts of 25 to 45 mph expected near Lake Superior including in Duluth for Wednesday into Thursday. Areas of blowing snow are likely midweek due to these strong winds, and the combination of falling and blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.
All 20 members which make up the GEFS ensemble model has snow falling in Duluth (blue colors on the images) at 6 AM Thursday, so chances are high that will see snow in Duluth with this midweek storm, it just comes down to whether or not it’ll be heavy snow, or just light snow rates this far north.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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