5:13 PM Monday, February 20, 2023
Clipper which brought the accumulating snow to the Northland today exits off to the east tonight and in its wake will be a break in the snowfall for most of the area late tonight through midday on Tuesday, in fact there might even be a little sun on Tuesday.
A second round of snow should pass mostly west/south of the Northland Tuesday afternoon/night, but there is major disagreement on the models with where this next round of snow sets up on Tuesday. GFS and Euro keeps it mostly south of the Northland, while the RAP, HRRR and NAM models show the snow much farther to the north affecting a larger portion of the Northland Tuesday afternoon/night.
Winter storm potential continues in parts of northeast Minnesota including the Twin Ports, and for all of east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday night into Thursday with snow and strong winds. Blizzard conditions could develop especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior on Thursday.
Low pressure was over north-central Minnesota late this afternoon and this low will continue to head off to the east-southeast tonight passing near Duluth early this evening. The track of today’s low has been slightly farther north vs. what a few of the models were forecasting the track to be today.
| Snowfall Reports from Monday, February 20, 2023 Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota 4 NE Cohasset, MN: 6.5″ 12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 6.0″ 8 W Hovland, MN: 6.0″ 1 WSW Two Harbors, MN: 4.0″ 2 N Pillager, MN: 3.6″ Federal Dam, MN: 3.5″ 1 W Grand Rapids, MN: 3.5″ 12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 3.0″ 3 NE Nisswa, MN: 2.5″ 3 E Payne, MN: 2.5″ Two Harbors, MN: 2.0″ 1 W Buyck, MN: 2.0″ Duluth, MN (NWS) 2.0″ thru 4 PM Monday 3 N Amnicon Falls State Park, WI: 1.3″ |
As is often the case with clipper systems there will be a period of gusty winds out of the northwest in wake of the low, and these stronger winds will sweep across the Northland this evening through early Tuesday morning with wind gusts up to 30 mph with even higher gusts possible. Expect patchy blowing snow in the area tonight due to the gusty winds.
HRRR model wind gust forecast through 9 AM Tuesday.
To go along with the gusty winds tonight will be some very cold temperatures with lows in the teens below zero in northern Minnesota, and from around 5 below to 5 above zero in eastern Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior.
A nice little spin showing up on visible satellite imagery associated with an area of low-pressure which is moving east-southeast out of northwest Minnesota.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, February 20, 2023 (loop time ends 2:51 PM CT)
MAJOR WINTER STORM MIDWEEK
Key messages on this upcoming winter storm from the Weather Prediction Center.
Round 1 of 3 rounds of snow wraps up in the Northland tonight, but as the system snow departs there will be some lake effect snow which develops tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin, but this lake effect snow should end before Noon on Tuesday.
Second round of snow still looks like it will impact western, central and southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin more than it will farther north in our area for Tuesday afternoon/night, but the northern fringe of this shield of snow could push far enough north to affect southern portions of the Northland from the Brainerd Lakes to the Twin Ports into northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
Third and final round of snow is then forecast to push slowly north out of southern Minnesota up into parts of the Northland Wednesday night/Thursday morning, and this snow will then taper off from west to east late Thursday afternoon/evening the way it looks now.
European model radar forecast valid from 6 PM Monday to 6 PM Thursday.
Snow (blue)
Mix Precipitation (orange and pink)
Rain (green)
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast valid from Tuesday evening through Thursday (ending 6 PM)
Snowfall gradients on the map below will probably tighten up even more especially on the Minnesota side over the next 24 hours.
For Duluth — Additional snowfall accumulations ranging from 4 inches to as much as 10 inches are possible during the Tuesday evening-Thursday time frame, with most of that snow falling late Wednesday night through the day Thursday.
There is a chance for some lake enhanced/lake effect snow in the Twin Ports, especially the south side of Duluth into Superior as winds look to be more out of the northeast vs. an east-northeast direction which would favor a larger portion of Duluth getting lake effect snow. Locations such as Riverside, Morgan Park, Oliver, Fond du Lac and Superior would be most at risk for possible lake effect snowfall Wednesday into Thursday, and that risk for lake effect will extend farther east along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.
Lake Superior was only around 10% ice covered as of February 19th (average ice concentration is around 45% this time of year) And temperatures aloft look plenty cold for lake effect snow with 850mb temps around -15C for Wednesday and Thursday.
Strong northeast winds with gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected near Lake Superior from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. The strong winds will lead to blowing snow with whiteout conditions possible at times due to a combination of falling and blowing snow. Blizzard or near blizzard conditions could develop near Lake Superior (especially along the South Shore) Wednesday evening through Thursday.
Euro model wind gust forecast valid 6 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.
A tremendous temperature gradient sets up midweek while an area of low-pressure lifts northeast out of the Central Plains along this temperature gradient.
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON LAKE SUPERIOR
Northeast winds 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 50 knots from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
Maximum wave heights of 16 to 20 feet are possible on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior especially over the Apostle Islands, and from 6 to 12 feet along the North Shore.
EXTREME TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS THIS WEEK
Over 100 record high temperatures are possible between Wednesday and Thursday (circled outlined areas on map) with temperatures as warm as the 70s and 80s as far north as Virginia on Thursday.
Meanwhile, around 80 record cold high temperatures are possible between Wednesday and Thursday (square icons on map) centered over the western U.S. into the Rockies and Northern Plains.
Wind Chill temperature of -81 degrees early today at Rankin Inlet Airport in Canada.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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