5:56 PM Tuesday, March 21, 2023
*Snow tonight with the highest snow amounts favoring the North Shore and also toward the International Falls area.
*A mix of snow, rain and possibly some sleet for eastern Minnesota and for much of northwest Wisconsin with lower snowfall amounts in these areas.
*Heaviest snow with snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1″/hour late this evening through early Wednesday morning in north central Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
*Difficult travel conditions are likely in north central and northeast Minnesota tonight through Wednesday morning with snow/slush covered roads. Conditions should improve by Wednesday afternoon.
*Gusty northeast winds 25 to 35 mph along the North Shore with areas of blowing snow through early Wednesday morning. Occasional whiteout/near whiteout conditions are possible through early Wednesday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Note — March 2023 currently ranks as the 7th snowiest March on record at Duluth and after tonight’s snow event March 2023 should get into the top 5 snowiest on record at Duluth, but the chance for an all-time snowiest March on record is looking pretty slim at the moment with a quieter weather pattern taking hold after tonight and through the rest of this month, now when I say quieter that doesn’t mean we might not get a little snow the rest of this month, but there are no consistent trends showing up in model guidance that a more significant snow event would hit the Twin Ports for the rest of this month.
Top 5 snowiest March on record at Duluth, Minnesota
1917: 48.2 inches
1965: 45.5 inches
1891: 31.0 inches
1975: 30.3 inches
2002: 29.7 inches
1913: 29.1 inches
I made a few more changes to my snowfall forecast for tonight’s system.
Lowered snow amounts in northwest Wisconsin and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota.
Forecast snowfall totals zoomed in on the Twin Ports.
Snow to the north with snow or a mix including some rain for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation ends from SW-NE Wednesday morning, but lingering snow showers should continue in the Arrowhead of Minnesota through about mid-afternoon Wednesday.
Duluth — A burst of snow early this evening (through around 7 PM) followed by a few dry hours mid to late evening, with the final wave of snow beginning late tonight around 12 or 1 AM. Snow ends Wednesday morning (5 to 7 AM) and the snow could end as some drizzle. Moderate to heavy snowfall rates are possible for a few hours early Wednesday morning.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 4 PM Wednesday.
Winter Storm Warnings (pink) and Winter Weather Advisories (purple) in effect for parts of north central and northeast Minnesota tonight through Wednesday morning.
A few areas of low pressure were over South Dakota this afternoon but the low currently west of Sioux Falls, SD should become the main low as it lifts northeastward across west central into northern Minnesota tonight through Wednesday morning. The track of this low has shifted even a little further west compared to 24 hours ago which means the chances for getting more than 4 inches of snow in Duluth have diminished.
Mid and upper-level trough with stronger lift will move quickly NE through the Northland late tonight into early Wednesday morning. The heaviest snow should occur as this trough moves through the area late tonight.
A look at the system moving into the Northland by way of the northern Plains via Goes-16 satellite imagery from Tuesday, March 21, 2023 (loop time ends 4:01 PM CT)
Infrared loop
Water vapor loop
Tim