5:51 PM Monday, March 27, 2023
For those not wanting to say goodbye to winter quite yet, well you’re in luck as the forecast ahead certainly looks more winter like than spring like around here, but this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise as we’re only in late March, soon to be early April.
*Fast moving system brings a few hours of light snow and snow showers to the Northland Tuesday into Tuesday evening but snowfall rates don’t look very impressive which should limit how much snow actually accumulates. So, although you might notice some snow falling out of the sky on Tuesday it likely won’t amount to very much with maybe an inch of new snow accumulation for a few lucky towns across the Northland by Tuesday night.
*Subzero temps remain a possibility in northern Minnesota Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, and possibly even for early Tuesday morning.
*Another round of snow and possibly some mixed precipitation is possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning and this system could be strong enough to put down a few inches of snow in some parts of the Northland, but nothing significant in terms of snowfall amounts late this week.
*And there’s even another system showing up in the models for late this weekend, and this one depending on the track could bring a little more snow or mixed precipitation to the Northland sometime Sunday-early Monday.
Here’s the NAM 3km model radar forecast for Tuesday (valid 7 AM to Midnight)
Snow in blue colors
Colder temperatures will return to the Northland the next few days as a late season brand of arctic air moves SE out of central Canada and North Dakota.
Temperatures were only in the teens in northern/eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota this afternoon with milder temps farther to the south/east including some 50-degree temps in southeast Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin where there’s little to no snow on the ground.
Daytime highs in the 20s to around 30 are likely in the Northland Tuesday and Wednesday with lows tonight through Wednesday night ranging from around -5 to +10.
850mb temps as low as -15 to -22C will be over the Northland Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. These temperatures at the 850mb level are well below average for this time of year and are running about -2.3 to -2.5 sigma per GFS model forecast.
The good news is that any sun we see Tuesday and Wednesday will at least make it feel a little warmer than what the actual thermometer will read, so just ignore the temperature.
An active weather pattern continues this week, but the storm track continues to favor a more southerly storm track which should keep a system late this week from hitting the Northland in the Friday-early Saturday time frame, but there is a separate system ahead of the main one which could hit the Northland late Thursday into early Friday bringing at least a little snow to the area.
Here’s a 500mb forecast showing the track of this late week system moving from California to Lower Michigan between Wednesday morning and Saturday morning.
There is a chance that we could see a fairly deep surface low develop on Thursday over eastern Colorado with this low forecast to track toward the ENE into Lower Michigan by Saturday morning the way it looks now.
The setup for severe thunderstorms becomes more favorable late this week out ahead of the next trough moving out of the Rockies.
Thursday’s risk for severe storms stretches from north Texas to southern Kansas (yellow area on map)
The potential for severe thunderstorms increases on Friday while also shifting farther to the east with areas from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas in the risk area.
The highest potential for severe storms includes the area in orange on the map below.
All severe hazards are in play for both Thursday and Friday including large hail, damaging winds and some tornadoes.
Looking for signs of warmer weather in the long range and I’m just not seeing it yet.
More colder than average temps look likely in the Northland through the first week of April.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trends for April 2-7, 2023
Below average temps: Blue and Purple
Above average temps: Orange and Red
Tim
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