5:14 PM Friday, March 31, 2023
March is going out with a bang as a powerful spring/winter storm affects a large area from the northern Plains and upper Midwest south to the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Mississippi Valleys.
To the north of the low in the colder air heavy snow and blizzard conditions develop this evening and continue overnight before ending around daybreak on Saturday with blizzard warnings in effect for much of central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.
Note — The main impact from this storm in Duluth will be continued strong northeast winds tonight with gusts of 35 to 55 mph. Winds will diminish Saturday morning. I’m not expecting much snow at all tonight in the Twin Ports with just some flurries or snow showers.
Here’s a zoomed-out view of the winter weather headlines that are in effect tonight through Saturday morning.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast through 7 AM Saturday.
Highest snow totals will be over southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.
For Duluth — Less than 1″ of snow tonight.
HRRR model radar forecast through 9 AM Saturday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry Mix (pink)
Snowfall Reports from Thursday evening-Friday morning, March 30-31, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 2.4″ (official total at the National Weather Service)
2 NNE Duluth, MN: 2.0″
1 SSE Cornucopia, WI: 1.9″
1 SW Brule, WI: 1.8″
Herbster, WI: 1.8″
2 E Esko, MN: 1.5″
2 WSW Washburn, WI: 1.5″
Two Harbors, MN: 1.5″
7 SSW Bowstring, MN: 1.3″
3 E Sarona, WI: 1.1″
Cotton, MN: 1.0″
Several tornado watches in effect through this evening stretching from southern Wisconsin, central to eastern Iowa, much of Illinois, and all the way south to northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana.
2 of the tornado watches are PDS tornado watches.
There are 2 areas under a HIGH RISK (level 5 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms through tonight, one includes eastern Iowa, far northeast Missouri into a portion of northwest Illinois, and the other high-risk area includes parts of eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. High risks aren’t issued very often.
A few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable through tonight anywhere in the hatched area on the map below.
Very high values showing up in the significant tornado parameter covering a very large area with values as high as 2 to 4 this afternoon.
This storm today has a tremendous amount of dynamics going for it with very strong jet stream winds blasting north/northeast out of the southern Plains while also splitting apart (divergence) as they do so which is enhancing the amount of lift in the atmosphere today.
Winds at 500mb are as strong as 100 knots with 300mb winds as strong as 140 knots this afternoon.
Here’s a look at today’s storm via Goes-16 sandwich satellite imagery (loop time ends 3:31 PM CT, Friday, March 31, 2023)
Low pressure continues to deepen over northern Iowa late this afternoon with a central pressure of 988mb. This low will continue to lift east-northeast reaching Lake Huron around daybreak on Saturday.
Tim
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