6:01 PM Wednesday, April 5, 2023
The next few days will remain on the cool side across the Northland, but a big change in the pattern is expected late this weekend into much of next week, and this pattern change will usher in a much warmer air mass into the upper Midwest with southern areas of Minnesota possibly seeing highs in the 70s on a few days next week with even a shot at 80 degrees. Here in the Northland, we’re looking at several days next week with highs in the 50s and 60s with an outside chance for a few 70s on 1 or 2 days next week. Temperatures near Lake Superior will be highly dependent on how wind directions set up from day to day which is nothing new for this time of the year. Offshore wind direction will lead to warmer temps, but an onshore wind direction would lead to much cooler temps near Lake Superior next week.
Here’s the EPS model temperature anomaly forecast for April 9-14, 2023
Orange, red and white: Above average temps
Blue and green: Below average temps
Here’s the GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for next week, and it’s quite similar to the EPS model so confidence increases that this pattern change will take place next week.
Orange and red: Above average temps
Blues: Below average temps
SNOW DEPTH UPDATE
The southern extent of snow cover extends from around Rochester to Green Bay, but this map should look quite a bit different by late next week as the 0″ snow depth line pushes farther north.
Still have lots of snow on the ground in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with minimum snow depth amounts of around 12 inches, and maximum snow depth amounts still sitting between 30 and 40 inches (green colors)
Note — The current primed snowpack in the Brainerd Lakes region, east central Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin may lead to enhanced runoff by early to mid-next week due to the warmer temperatures. Flooding could also become a concern early to mid-next week if enough runoff is produced by the melting snow. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.
AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK
And in this snowpack, there is record or near record amounts of water.
Near Lake Superior along both the North Shore and South Shore there is anywhere from 8 inches to as much as 14 inches of water in the snowpack with lower values near the immediate shoreline.
There isn’t a whole lot of precipitation ahead for the Northland at least through early next week, but there are signs the pattern could turn somewhat active again later next week/next weekend, but the way it looks now is that precipitation would mainly be in the form of rain and not snow.
Snow stats for Duluth, Minnesota
Average date for the last 1″ or greater snowfall: April 12th (record latest May 19th set in 2019)
Average date for the last 0.1″ or greater snowfall: April 26th (record latest May 28th set in 1965)
Note — Duluth still needs an additional 4.2 inches of snow to break the seasonal snowfall record of 135.4 inches which was set in 1995-1996.
Chances that we break the seasonal snowfall record are diminishing as the mean date for a 1″ or greater snowfall is quickly approaching, although that’s not to say we still couldn’t get a 1″ or greater snowfall past the mean date of April 12th, but we would need a couple 1″ or greater snow events in order to get enough snow to set a new seasonal snowfall record, can that happen? Of course, it can, will it? Well, it won’t at least through next week which means we would have to get a few snow events in late April or even in early May, that’s happened in the past, but I wouldn’t count on that happening every year as you need just about a perfect setup in the pattern to get enough cold air in order for it to snow the later you get into April and also in early May.
Tim