6:54 PM Sunday, April 9, 2023
A weak trough did bring a few rain showers to parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today with rainfall totals of <0.05″, including 0.04″ of rain at the Duluth Airport this afternoon.
Outside of some patchy low clouds/fog late at night and during the early morning hours due to lots of snowmelt, the next few days will be pretty quiet weatherwise in the Northland with big-time warmth moving in the next few days.
Looking at temperatures aloft reveals an impressive amount of warm air moving east into the Northland which will peak Tuesday and Wednesday when 850mb temperatures increase to around +15 to +20C and this is running about +2.5 sigma for this time of year per GFS model forecast. Note — Temperatures today maxed out in the 50s to lower 60s in the Northland with 850mb temps of around +7C, so as even warmer air moves in aloft, chances are pretty good will see widespread 65 to 75 degree high temps in parts of the Northland for Tuesday and Wednesday, while highs Monday range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
High of 61 at International Falls today (April 9th, 2023) This is the first time since November 3rd, 2022, with a temperature of at least 60 degrees.
High of 51 at Duluth today (April 9th, 2023) This is the first time since November 26th with a temperature of at least 50 degrees. Note — Duluth Airport lost 3 inches of snow today with the snow depth dropping from 27 inches to 24 inches between Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon.
Even though high temperatures will be running about +15 to +25 degrees above average Tuesday and Wednesday, it doesn’t look quite warm enough to set any new high temperature records in the Northland.
Tonight, should be the last night we see temperatures drop below freezing with sub-freezing overnight temperatures possibly returning again sometime late this week/next weekend, so the combination of very warm daytime temps and sunshine, plus overnight temps remaining above freezing for the next several nights will likely lead to rapid snowmelt across the Northland this week.
It’s been a cold April up to this point but that will be changing in a big way across the Northland over the next few days as much warmer (well above average) temperatures move in.
Average temperature and departure from average in the Northland for April 1-8, 2023.
Brainerd, MN: 29.6 F; -7.9 degrees below average
Ashland, WI: 28.3 F; -6.3 degrees below average
Duluth, MN: 27.6 F; -7.0 degrees below average
Hibbing, MN: 25.6 F; -7.0 degrees below average
International Falls, MN: 25.6 F; -7.5 degrees below average
Here’s the April 2023 temperature anomaly for the Lower 48 thru the 7th.
A trough of low-pressure setting up shop over the Rockies around midweek will eventually pull out onto the Plains later this week and this trough could bring a return to a wetter pattern in the Northland late this week into next weekend but there remains a lot of uncertainty in the computer models regarding how the pattern sets up and on precipitation totals in the Northland. Stay tuned.
The NWS Blend of Models shows widespread precipitation totals of 1 inch or more in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through next Sunday with most of this coming late this week and next weekend. Nothing is set in stone yet when it comes to precipitation totals late this week, but this would obviously be a bad thing should we get this much rain or a combination of rain and snow especially when you factor in all the snowmelt will be seeing in the coming days.
There are colder risks showing up in the computer models later this week into early next week, and if it turns cold enough and we have some moisture around, then it’s certainly not out of the question that there could be at least a little bit of snow in some parts of the Northland next weekend.
GEFS model temperature anomaly trend for April 16-21, 2023.
Blues: Below average temperatures
Orange and red: Above average temperatures
Speaking of snow, here’s the 15-Day EPS model snowfall forecast for Duluth.
No snow in the short term but starting around or after April 15th is when we may see some more snow in the Twin Ports but it’s way too soon to tell if any of this snow would amount to anything.
GEFS model total snowfall through 7 AM Monday, April 17, 2023.
Again, next weekend is the time frame to keep an eye on for the potential for some snow in parts of the Northland.
Blue colors on the images below indicates snowfall of 2″+
Purple colors on the images below indicates snowfall of 6″+
Tim