6:57 PM Saturday, April 22, 2023
One large upper-level low/trough stretches from central Canada to the upper Midwest and Great Lakes today. This upper low/trough is helping to maintain a chilly air mass across the upper Midwest, and this upper trough won’t be in a hurry to exit the area, and there are signs showing up in the computer models for another large upper trough to develop later next week/next weekend somewhere from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. What this all means is that there will be no prolonged or significant warmups in the Northland over the next week or so. Yes, we could get a day or two mixed in of warmer temps, but if that happens it likely won’t stick around for very long.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Saturday, April 22, 2023 (loop time ends 5:46 PM CT)
A very cold night ahead across the Northland with lows in the teens and 20s, and if clouds break up enough, then we might even see some single digit temperatures in northern Minnesota early Sunday morning.
Here are the record low temperatures for April 23.
International Falls, MN: 6 set in 1909
Ashland, WI: 11 set in 1893
Duluth, MN: 12 set in 1909
Brainerd, MN: 18 set in 1918 and 1967
Hibbing, MN: 19 set in 1996, 2005 and 2015
Note — Hibbing probably has the best chance at setting a new record low temperature tomorrow morning.
Duluth averages 13 days with a high of 50 or warmer in April. So far this April Duluth’s only had 7 days with a high of 50 or warmer, and it doesn’t look like will be adding many more 50-degree days for the rest of this month, perhaps 1 or 2 more, but that might be it.
No signs of any above normal high temperatures in Duluth for the next 10 days, in fact it looks like it’ll be a difficult just to get high temps which are close to normal for this time of year.
Pieces of energy rotating around an upper low will continue to move across the Northland the next few days with chances for scattered snow showers continuing through Monday, with mixed rain/snow showers possible during Sunday and Monday afternoon. A dusting to an inch of snow accumulation is possible if a heavier snow shower moves over your location, otherwise we’re not looking at much snow accumulation thru Monday.
HRRR model radar forecast valid 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM Monday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Model uncertainties continue for late next week, but there are signals showing up in model guidance for another potentially large and strong upper-low/trough to develop somewhere from the upper Midwest, Great Lakes to the central Plains in the April 27-30 time frame.
Here’s the EPS model 500mb height anomaly forecast valid for April 27-30, 2023.
Below normal heights/unsettled weather in blue/purple colors on the animation below.
If that aforementioned system affects the Northland, then we could be looking at a few days of precipitation late next week/next weekend, with rain being the main precipitation type, but there could even be some wet snow if enough cold air wraps into this next system.
Widespread precipitation totals of 0.50 to 1″ or more are possible across the Northland thru April 30, with most of this coming late next week/next weekend.
Euro ensemble (EPS model)
GEFS model
Canadian ensemble or CMCE model
FLOOD UPDATE
*Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin and at Fort Ripley, with moderate to minor flooding.
*Flood Warning in effect until 10 AM Monday for Clam Lake and downstream portions of the Clam River including Webster, Siren, and Saint Croix State Park.
Flood Warnings have been cancelled for the following rivers.
Prairie River at Taconite, MN
Snake River near Pine City, MN
St. Louis River at Scanlon, MN
Tyler Forks River near Mellen, WI
5-Day Significant River Flood Outlook thru April 27, 2023
Red — Significant River Flooding Occurring
Orange — Significant River Flooding Likely
Yellow — Significant River Flooding Possible
Tim
Leave a Reply