5:04 PM Thursday, August 24, 2023
A cold front will move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday morning. Timing of this frontal passage isn’t very favorable for a lot of thunderstorm activity in our area since the front moves through during the morning before enough instability can build up during peak heating in the afternoon. Instead, we’re looking at isolated to scattered showers in the Northland late tonight into Friday morning with isolated thunderstorms also possible but severe weather is not expected, and we’re also not looking at much rain or a widespread rain event with this system.
A much weaker lake wind in Duluth today allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 70s this afternoon, and temperatures will likely be slightly warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but a northeast wind and cooler temperatures return for Saturday with highs in the 60s.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 7 PM Friday.
Some showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely move east to southeast across the Northland late tonight through Friday morning with isolated showers possibly redeveloping Friday afternoon but again this likely won’t be a real big rain event in our area.
Rainfall forecast through 7 PM Friday.
***DROUGHT UPDATE***
August 22, 2023
Minnesota
1.74% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 1.10% last week.
33% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 22% last week.
72% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
99% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
0.66% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, unchanged from last week.
12% of the state is in Extreme Drought, up from 11% last week.
44% of the state is in Severe Drought, up from 42% last week.
78% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
96% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
1 week Drought Monitor Class Change — August 22, 2023, compared to August 15, 2023.
Yellow areas: 1 class degradation
Gray: No change
An additional 6 to 9 inches of precipitation is needed in all of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin to get rid of the current drought.
Total Precipitation, departure and percent of normal precipitation from May 26, 2023, to August 23, 2023.
Duluth, MN
Total: 6.91″
Normal: 11.76″
Departure: -4.85″ below normal
Percent of normal precipitation: 59% of normal
Hibbing, MN
Total: 6.62″
Normal: 11.08″
Departure: -4.46″ below normal
Percent of normal precipitation: 59% of normal
Brainerd, MN
Total: 5.64″
Normal: 11.38″
Departure: -5.74″ below normal
Percent of normal precipitation: 50% of normal
Superior, WI
Total: 5.23″
Normal: 12.06″
Departure: -6.83″ below normal
Percent of normal precipitation: 44% of normal
Last 90 days percent of normal precipitation — May 26, 2023, to August 23, 2023.
Much of the Northland has had around 50% of its normal precipitation since late May.
Finally seeing the low clouds erode somewhat this afternoon which has given way to some sunshine in parts of the Northland.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, August 24, 2023 (loop time ends 4:11 PM CT)
Dew points remain on the high side making it feel pretty humid out there this afternoon, but a less humid air mass will arrive in the Northland Friday afternoon as dew points fall from the 60s into the 50s.
Weather pattern is changing as a trough digs SE out of west central Canada today which is helping to push the upper-level ridge along with the very hot temperatures farther to the south compared to where it was earlier in the week.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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