4:25 PM Sunday, August 27, 2023
A weak system will move southeast across the Northland through Monday, and this system will likely produce isolated light showers and virga tonight, with a few showers and thunderstorms on Monday with the thunderstorm threat highest during the afternoon-early evening as temperatures warm which will help build up some instability. The threat for severe weather on Monday is very low due to very weak lapse rates and not a whole lot of lift, moisture or instability, but winds aloft will be fairly strong so there could be an isolated stronger storm or two later Monday afternoon but nothing widespread or significant when it comes to rain totals and severe weather in our area is expected Monday.
Monday’s system is about our only chance to get a little rain in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through at least September 6th way it looks now.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 10 PM Monday.
A chilly Sunday morning across the Northland with several locations in the area seeing temperatures in the 30s earlier today.
Low temperature reports from Sunday, August 27, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Note — No new record lows were set or even tied in the area this morning, but normal lows in late August are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so the temperatures we saw this morning were running about -10 to -15 degrees below average in much of the Northland.
Ashland, WI: 35
Brimson, MN: 36
Hurley, WI: 36
Superior, WI: 36
Aitkin, MN: 37
Cloquet, MN: 37
Hayward, WI: 37
McGregor, MN: 37
Solon Springs, WI: 37
Floodwood, MN: 39
Hibbing, MN: 39
Two Harbors, MN: 39
Note — Duluth Airport dropped down to 42 degrees this morning (August 27, 2023) This is the coldest temperature we’ve seen in Duluth since June 16, 2023, when the temperature dipped to 39 degrees.
Looking ahead shows warmer than average temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over about the next 2 weeks with good model agreement in the temperature forecast per EPS and GEFS models.
Even though we’re looking at above average temperatures in the Northland over the next 2 weeks or so, that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get an occasional shot of below average temperatures mixed in, and this is especially true near Lake Superior including the Twin Ports area where there is a pretty good chance will have an east wind at least on a few days over the next 2 weeks, and anytime that wind is coming off Lake Superior will likely see near to below normal temps by the lake.
Orange, red and white colors on the images below indicate above average temperatures, while blue and green colors indicate below average temperatures.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid August 28 to September 2, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid August 28 to September 2, 2023.
Note — Oldest run is days 4-8, and the newest run is days 2-6.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid September 4-9, 2023.
GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast valid September 4-9, 2023.
Note — Oldest run is days 11-15, and the newest run is days 9-13.
Keep in mind Duluth averages 2 days during the month of September with a high of at least 80. The greatest number of 80-degree days in September occurred way back in 1908 with a total of 10 days with a high of at least 80 in Duluth.
Have to go back to 2010 for the last time Duluth didn’t have any days during the month of September with a high of least 80 in Duluth. Last September saw 4 days with a high of at least 80.
Here’s the 10-day temperature forecast for Duluth which goes out to September 6th.
Average monthly temperatures for August 2023 are running slightly warmer than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, while parts of the deep south are seeing their average temperatures this month running well above average (yellow outlined area on map)
Here’s a look at the temperature anomalies for August 2023 (thru the 26th) in the Northland.
Brainerd, MN: +1.5 degrees above average
Hibbing, MN: +0.7 degrees above average
Ashland, WI: +0.6 degrees above average
International Falls, MN: +0.6 degrees above average
Duluth, MN: +0.4 degrees above average
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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