5:45 PM Wednesday, September 27, 2023
Looks like the Northland will have mostly dry weather for Thursday although an isolated shower still can’t be ruled out, but rain chances increase once again for Friday into early Saturday as a cold front makes its way east out of western Minnesota. Southerly winds ahead of this front should advect quite a bit of moisture northward into the area on Friday with PWATS of around 1.25 to 1.50″ along with dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s which is pretty high for late September.
Showers and some thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the Northland at times Friday through early Saturday morning and some of those storms could produce heavy downpours.
Temperatures Saturday have trended cooler compared to how they looked a few days ago, with highs in the 60s to around 70 now forecast in much of the Northland Saturday and with winds out of the NE near Lake Superior this could even mean that will be dealing with a bit of fog/low cloudiness coming off the lake at times.
Note — 0.05 inches of rain recorded at the Duluth Airport today (thru 4 PM Wednesday) this brings the total for September to 10.05 inches. Will need an additional 1.47 inches of precipitation to tie for the wettest September on record (11.52 inches) which was set in 1881.
There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday night over parts of central Minnesota with large hail to quarter size and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph being the primary severe weather threats.
Here’s an early look at a few different computer model radar forecasts for Friday.
NAM 3km model 7 AM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.
HRRR model 7 AM to 1 PM Friday.
The sunshine we saw in parts of the Northland on Tuesday was replaced by quite a bit of cloudiness once again today.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Wednesday, September 27, 2023 (loop time ends 4:21 PM CT)
Upper-level low which was over Minnesota this past weekend is still churning slowly southeast today with the center of this system over southern Lake Michigan late this afternoon.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Wednesday, September 27, 2023 (loop time ends 4:10 PM CT)
Still seeing a few showers move in an odd direction (northwest) across parts of north central and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin today well to the northwest of the upper low over southern Lake Michigan.
Radar loop ending 5:25 PM CT, Wednesday, September 27, 2023.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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