5:00 PM Thursday, September 28, 2023
More rain is on the way for Friday into early Saturday with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible in much of the Northland.
The first wave of rain is forecast to move east or northeast out of western Minnesota Friday morning, with a second round of rain possible sometime Friday night-early Saturday morning, but this second round of rain looks to target more of east central Minnesota and parts of northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance that northern Minnesota would be impacted by this second round of rain Friday night.
All of this rain should clear out of the Northland this weekend with mainly dry conditions expected the way it looks now for Saturday and Sunday, but with a warm front nearby, you certainly can’t rule out a few showers or thunderstorms at times.
Note — There is a small chance (marginal) of flash flooding in all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Friday and Friday night.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
HRRR model radar forecast valid 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
***RAINFALL FORECASTS THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY***
European model.
HREF model. This map shows the maximum rainfall potential.
And here’s the HREF model ensemble probability-matched mean rainfall forecast.
And finally, here’s the NWS Blend of Models rainfall forecast.
***SEVERE RISK FRIDAY***
There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday night over western parts of the Northland including parts of north central and east central Minnesota. The primary severe weather threats include large hail to quarter size (1″ diameter) and wind gusts to 60 mph.
We’ve seen a significant improvement in the drought across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin over the last week.
Here’s the latest drought monitor as of September 26, 2023.
Minnesota
0% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, down from 2% last week.
8% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 26% last week.
46% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 64% last week.
82% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 94% last week.
100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
0% of the state is in Exceptional Drought, down from 3% last week.
6% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 24% last week.
37% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 63% last week.
80% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 86% last week.
97% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Drought Monitor Class Change (1 week) September 26, 2023, compared to September 19, 2023.
Light green — 1 class drought improvement.
Darker green — 2 class drought improvement.
Here’s the 3-week Drought Monitor Class Change — September 26, 2023, compared to September 5, 2023.
Darker green colors represent a 2 to 3 class drought improvement.
Percent of normal precipitation over the last 2 weeks — Purple colors represent 150 to 300% of normal precipitation over the last 2 weeks.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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