6:01 PM Monday, October 2, 2023
A cold front and upper-level trough over the northern Rockies this afternoon will move east and across the upper Midwest from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Some rain is likely as this system moves across the Northland from late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning with the greatest rainfall amounts in our area favoring north central Minnesota with lesser amounts of rain expected in northwest Wisconsin the way it looks now.
A few thunderstorms are possible as well mainly over north central and east central Minnesota late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and any thunderstorm could produce heavier downpours.
Will see a secondary cold front and upper-level low/trough dig southeast out of northwest Canada and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes later this week and this system will usher in a much cooler (more seasonable) airmass along with producing some more scattered rains for Thursday and Friday. Note — It doesn’t look like it’ll be cold enough for any snow late this week anywhere in the Northland.
The coolest days this week look to be Friday and Saturday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Overnight lows in the 30s with some 20s in the typical cold spots are also likely late this week and weekend so a lot of us will likely be seeing some frost, and for some of us perhaps the first frost of the season by this weekend.
Precipitation forecasts
NWS Blend of Models
Euro model
NAM model — Note the NAM is slightly farther to the east with the greatest amounts of rain setting up more in east central and northeast Minnesota including the Twin Ports area.
Looks dry in Duluth during the day Tuesday followed by increasing chances for some rain and possibly a thunderstorm from mid to late evening Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.
Southerly winds and very warm temperatures were the highlights of Monday’s weather across the Northland. Highs today were mostly in the 80s with cooler temperatures very close to Lake Superior but the fog and mist from this past weekend disappeared early today.
The official high in Duluth today was 81 degrees which is +21 degrees above average for October 2nd, but the high today wasn’t quite warm enough to break the record high of 86 which was set on October 2, 1953.
On the other hand, International Falls did tie its daily record high temperature of 87 degrees today, this record was originally set in 1912, congrats I’Falls!
On October 1st, Brainerd, Hibbing, and International Falls all broke their record warm low temperature for the date.
Note — The average date for the last 80 degree temperature in Duluth is September 15th so it’s definitely a bonus to get another 80 degree day in October. Last year’s last 80 degree temperature in Duluth occurred on September 20th. The latest last 80 degree temperature on record in Duluth occurred on October 21st (1901)
Thanks for reading!
Tim