6:18 PM Monday, October 9, 2023
Another cold night is likely in much of the Northland tonight with lows in the 20s to lower 30s with slightly warmer temperatures closer to Lake Superior.
A few rain showers are also likely tonight into Tuesday morning over far northeast Minnesota and along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin. Note — Temperatures could turn cold enough for a few snow flurries to mix with the rain showers in extreme northeast Minnesota (north of Grand Marais) Tuesday morning, but no snow accumulations are expected.
A system later this week could bring some rain to parts of the Northland but there continues to be some pretty big disagreement on the track of this system in the computer models today, but one thing looks pretty certain and it’s that we should see some gusty NE winds especially near Lake Superior Thursday and Friday along with some lake effect rain showers near Lake Superior Wednesday night through Saturday.
Looking at two systems later this week, one lingering over eastern Canada (outlined in yellow) while a stronger system moves out of Colorado (outlined in black).
The system over Canada may actually help steer the Colorado low farther south keeping the rain away from much of the Northland later this week but it’s a tricky setup.
One trend seen today is the Canadian model shifted farther south and the European model did as well although not as big of a shift as the Canadian model, while the GEFS model which was farthest south 24 hours ago has trended more to the north, go figure!
Here’s a look at the precipitation forecasts from the various computer models.
It continues to look like we could see some fairly strong winds near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports area Thursday into Friday as northeast winds increase with gusts possibly in the 30 to 40 mph range.
European model wind gust forecast valid 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM Saturday.
A few rain showers are possible at times tonight through Tuesday morning over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior as we could see a gravity wave develop over western Lake Superior for a few hours Tuesday morning which could lead to some lake effect rain along the South Shore of Lake Superior.
NAM 3km model radar forecast through 1 PM Tuesday.
A strong low-pressure system is spinning south of James Bay Canada today with the western cloud shield associated with this system affecting parts of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin today.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, October 9, 2023 (loop time ends 5 PM CT)
And a look at this system on Goes-16 water vapor imagery. A pretty impressive looking system.
Loop time ends 5:10 PM CT, Monday, October 9, 2023.
Another chilly night ahead of us with the coldest temperatures and the greatest risk for a freeze and frost expected inland from Lake Superior early Tuesday morning.
Note — Freeze and Frost headlines are in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM Tuesday.
Low Temperature reports from Monday morning, October 9, 2023
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
3 W Indus, MN: 24
2 E Celina, MN: 25
Cotton, MN: 26
Aitkin, MN: 27
Hayward, WI: 27
Cook, MN: 27
Floodwood, MN: 27
Solon Springs, WI: 28
Embarrass, MN: 28
Hibbing, MN: 29
Siren, WI: 29
3 E Wright, MN: 29
Brimson, MN: 29
International Falls, MN: 30
Cass Lake, MN: 30
Bigfork, MN: 30
Longville, MN: 30
Pine River, MN: 30
Cloquet, MN: 30
Grand Rapids, MN: 31
Brainerd, MN: 31
Grand Marais Airport: 32
Ely, MN: 32
Orr, MN: 32
Crane Lake, MN: 32
McGregor, MN: 32
Superior Airport: 32
Butternut, WI: 32
Duluth Airport: 33
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 33
Hurley, WI: 34
Ashland, WI: 34
Two Harbors, MN: 34
Moose Lake, MN: 34
Hinckley, MN: 34
Drought Update as of October 3, 2023
Minnesota
7% of the state is in Extreme Drought, down from 8% last week.
43% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 46% last week.
82% of the state is in Moderate Drought, unchanged from last week.
100% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Wisconsin
6% of the state is in Extreme Drought, unchanged from last week.
33% of the state is in Severe Drought, down from 37% last week.
75% of the state is in Moderate Drought, down from 80% last week.
97% of the state is Abnormally Dry, unchanged from last week.
Drought has improved significantly across the Northland over the last month with a 1 to as much as a 3-class improvement (green areas on map below) between October 3, 2023, and September 5, 2023.
30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation. September 9, 2023, to October 8, 2023.
Note — Blue and purple colors represent 130 to >200% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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