5:56 PM Tuesday, November 7, 2023
An area of low pressure currently over southeast Saskatchewan along with an upper-level trough digging into the northern Plains will affect the Northland’s weather over the next few days as this system moves pretty slowly to the east. It’ll likely take until Thursday night before this system pulls far enough to the east of our area which will lead to diminishing chances of precipitation. A secondary low farther south over western Kansas late this afternoon will move ENE through Wednesday evening, but that low won’t really affect our weather much at all.
-A variety of precipitation types are likely in the Northland tonight into Wednesday morning with mostly snow or a wintry mix along the North Shore/Arrowhead and also in far northern Minnesota.
-Farther south expect more rain along with some drizzle tonight with a wintry mix possible in spots in northwest Wisconsin.
-Much of the day Wednesday may end up dry, but chances for rain/snow showers will increase from NW-SE late Wednesday afternoon with some snow/rain showers lingering into Thursday.
-Gusty winds will continue in the Northland over the next few days with east to southeast winds tonight gradually shifting to the south on Wednesday, then to the southwest or west Thursday and to the northwest on Friday. Wind gusts of 15 to 30 mph are likely at times through Thursday night.
–Duluth area: Precipitation tonight will mainly be in the form of rain closer to Lake Superior in lower elevation while on top of the hill in higher elevation we could see a rain/snow mix tonight. Precipitation ends early Wednesday morning before 6 AM. A few rain showers are possible late Wednesday afternoon-evening followed by some snow showers and flurries at times Thursday and Friday. Note — A light dusting of snow accumulation (<1″) is possible Thursday.
A winter weather advisory is in effect tonight through 9 AM Wednesday including the North Shore and Arrowhead in northeast Minnesota. Impacts include slippery road conditions.
3 to 5 inches of snow are possible through Wednesday morning in far northeast Minnesota along the North Shore (higher terrain) with much lower snow totals of an inch or less farther west/south across northern Minnesota and also in parts of far northern Wisconsin.
Duluth area: Less than 1″ of snow tonight on top of the hill with no snow expected in lower elevation closer to Lake Superior.
Precipitation totals of 0.50″ to around 1″ are possible tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior with totals ranging from around 0.10″ to 0.35″ possible over the rest of northeast Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin.
18z NAM 3km model radar forecast through 12 PM Wednesday.
Snow (blue)
Rain (green)
Wintry Mix (purple)
Note — An initial band of precipitation in a warm air advection pattern has been lifting NE across the Northland this afternoon with a variety of precipitation types reported as this band of precip moves through. For the most part we’ve been seeing snow or a wintry mix to the north with rain farther south this afternoon.
Southerly winds are leading to a warm air advection pattern across the area this afternoon with 850mb temperatures ranging from around +6C in the Brainerd and Hinckley areas to as low as -5C in far northeast Minnesota around the Grand Marais area. Note — Chances for frozen precipitation are highest where the 850mb temps are near or below 0C tonight.
A look at Tuesday afternoon temperatures.
A pretty impressive system spinning over southern Saskatchewan today.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Tuesday, November 7, 2023 (loop time ends 4:40 PM CT)
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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