6:07 PM Wednesday, November 15, 2023
A strong cold front and upper-level trough will move quickly east out of the Dakotas on Thursday with this cold front moving east across the Northland Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.
Strong southwest winds but mild temps will be found ahead of the cold front on Thursday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s in east central Minnesota, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin with 40s in far northern Minnesota as that area will see the cooler air move in sooner compared to locations farther south/east.
It will be windy on Thursday with south or southwest winds gusting 25 to 45 mph (strongest winds in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Wind will continue to be an issue Thursday night through Friday morning, but this time will have winds out of the northwest with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, and those northwest winds will usher in much cooler but really just more seasonable temps for Friday with highs in the 30s to around 40.
As for precipitation chances, nothing significant in terms of snow or rain showing up in the computer models through Thanksgiving, but a few snow showers and flurries are likely in parts of the Northland late Thursday afternoon-early Friday morning due to the colder air moving in. And there is another chance for some light rain or snow late Monday into Tuesday of next week, and that system may produce up to an inch of snow in some parts of the Northland early next week but that looks to be about it in terms of snowfall through Thanksgiving.
A strong trough (outlined in black on the map below) will move quickly east out of the Dakotas on Thursday which will help usher in a much cooler air mass for Friday.
The system moving through Thursday is a strong one but doesn’t have very much moisture to work with so we’re only looking at a few snow showers or flurries Thursday night and perhaps a few rain showers in northwest Wisconsin late Thursday afternoon.
NAM 3km model radar forecast valid from 12 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday.
Before the cooler air arrives on Friday, we do have one more warm day ahead for Thursday especially from southern and central Minnesota to the North Shore including all of Wisconsin where will see temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s Thursday afternoon.
Here are the record high temperatures for November 16th
Brainerd, MN: 65 set in 1934 and 1953
Ashland, WI: 64 set in 1931 and 1953
Duluth, MN: 64 set in 1931
Hibbing, MN: 60 set in 1953
International Falls, MN: 59 set in 1953
Highs Thursday will be running some +15 to +25 degrees above average in those darker red and white colors on the map below.
There could be a little snow in the Northland early next week, especially in the Monday night to Tuesday time frame the way it looks now, but nothing major in terms of snowfall accumulations.
A more significant shot of cold air could affect the Northland next week especially later next week into early the following week, or from around November 23-28.
Note: Afternoon temps in the 20s with overnight/morning temps in the single digits and teens are possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin starting around the middle of next week lingering at least through next weekend if not a little longer.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast.
There is actually good model agreement on this much colder pattern developing next week.
Here’s the GEFS model temperature anomaly forecast for November 23-28, 2023.
Oldest model run is Days 11-15 on the animation below and the newest model runs is Days 9-13.
Blue colors=Below average temps
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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