6:38 PM Wednesday, January 10, 2024
A few snowfall reports from today (thru 5 PM)
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 3.5″
6 WSW South Range, WI: 2.5″
Duluth, MN: 1.8″ (official total at the NWS thru 4 PM today
January 2024 snowfall stats for Duluth, thru 4 PM on the 10th.
Total: 6.3 inches
Departure: +0.6 inches above normal
Percent of normal snowfall: 111% of our normal snowfall
Snow depth: 5.0 inches
Note: Seasonal snowfall total of 14.1 inches in Duluth, and this is -27.2 inches below normal to date, and just 34% of our normal snowfall to date.
A real complicated setup through Friday which leads to a low confidence forecast.
Several mid and upper-level waves will pass through the region through Friday while will also see a much stronger system lift northeast out of the Southern Plains. Will also see a trough move east out of the eastern Dakotas tonight and Thursday, but this trough will stall out and push toward the south on Friday in response to the low approaching from the Southern Plains. With all the different pieces of energy over the area, this will create enough lift to generate areas of snow in the Northland through Friday.
What is a bit unique about this setup is that will also see a convergence zone (snow band) with east winds in place along the North Shore of Lake Superior while winds become westerly farther inland from Lake Superior on Thursday. These colliding wind directions will likely lead to further lift creating an enhanced area of snowfall somewhere over northeastern Minnesota on Thursday.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast; these are additional snow amounts on top of what has already fallen during the day today.
This forecast is through 6 AM Friday.
6 to 10 inches of snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior with higher amounts possible from northeast of Two Harbors to Castle Danger and Silver Bay, northeast to Little Marais and Tofte.
3 to 5 inches of snow along the North Shore southwest and northeast of the 6 to 10″ zone.
1 to 3 inches of snow in northern Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin.
Duluth area: An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow possible through Thursday afternoon.
Note: More snow with some additional accumulation is possible Friday into early Saturday morning.
Winter storm warnings and advisories in effect through 6 PM Thursday for parts of the North Shore of Lake Superior.
NAM 3km model simulated radar forecast through 6 PM Thursday.
500mb analysis from late Wednesday afternoon.
Purple outlined areas=Disturbances
Here’s what I mean about the differing wind directions with east winds along the North Shore today while winds in eastern North Dakota are out of the west. Watch what happens Thursday (2nd image below)
We could see a stronger convergence zone setup over parts of northeast Minnesota on Thursday with east winds along the North Shore and west winds in north central Minnesota. Where those winds collide is the area where we could see some enhancement in snowfall, and northeast Minnesota appears to be that spot for this potential.
An active pattern in place.
Goes-16 infrared satellite loop ending 5:55 PM Wednesday.
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
Winds will increase out of the east-southeast along the North Shore of Lake Superior tonight and will remain a bit gusty on Thursday with wind gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Areas of blowing snow could develop due to the gusty winds along the North Shore tonight into Thursday.
Much stronger winds are possible in the Northland Friday as a powerful area of low-pressure tracks northeast out of the southern Plains reaching the eastern Great Lakes by early Saturday morning.
The pressure gradient will tighten considerably between the aforementioned low lifting out of the southern Plains and an arctic high over western Canada leading to a potential for widespread gusty north winds of 15 to 35 mph in the Northland Friday and Friday night. Areas of blowing snow are possible if these gusty winds develop.
NAM 3km model wind gust forecast valid 7 PM Thursday to Midnight Saturday.
Will see another very strong low-pressure system develop over the southern Plains on Friday and this low will lift northeast as it passes between Chicago and Detroit Friday evening.
Widespread winter weather alerts cover parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of this next storm on Friday.
Bitterly cold air is oozing south out of western and central Canada, but it’ll take a few more days before this arctic air reaches the Northland, but this cold air is coming, and by this weekend will see highs only in the single digits below to single digits above zero in the Northland with lows in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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