6:16 PM Monday, February 5, 2024
- A new record high temperature was set in Duluth today with a high of 50 degrees. The old record high temperature for February 5th was 45 degrees set 147 years ago in 1877.
- Today’s high of 50 in Duluth marked the first time this year with a temperature of at least 50 degrees. The average date for the first 50 degree temperature in Duluth is March 15th using the 1991-2020 climate period, or March 20th using the 1875-2023 climate period.
- The earliest first 50 on record for Duluth occurred on January 14th, 1894.
- Last year’s first 50 in Duluth didn’t occur until April 9th.
Note: A temperature of 50 or warmer in Duluth during the month of February isn’t that unusual as we’ve seen many years in the past where we’ve had at least 1 day with a temperature of at least 50 degrees. Prior to today’s 50, the most recent was in February 2017. See list below.
2017
2016
2011
2000
1991
1987
1981
1976
1961
1958
1932
1931
1930
1925
1899
1896
1895
1892
1890
1889
1888
1886
1882
1880
1877
Low pressure is forecast to track northeast out of northeast Colorado from mid to late week.
With the low tracking west of the Northland this puts our area on the eastern side or warmer side of this system which means that rain will be the most common precipitation type from Wednesday night through Thursday night, but as the low exits the area on Friday and some cooler air works in behind the low that’s when will likely see some of the rain change over to snow showers and flurries in most of the Northland but this doesn’t look like it’ll be a major snow event in the Northland Friday into Friday night with perhaps a dusting to an inch of snow accumulation the way it looks now.
Duluth area: Rain showers develop late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night with occasional rain expected Thursday into Thursday evening.
European model precipitation type forecast valid 12 PM Wednesday to 12 AM Friday.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Wintry Mix (pink)
Note: Yes, snowfall has been well below average in Duluth this winter with our seasonal snowfall total running -37.5 inches below normal to date, but the actual amount of precipitation we’ve seen this winter is running above normal by +1.36 inches, and that’s mainly due to the multiday rain event we saw in Duluth around Christmas and will be seeing another rain event mid to late week, so actually we’re doing quite well in terms of the amount of precipitation we’ve seen this winter due to the rain, not snow.
Rainfall totals of around a half inch or more are possible in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday night through Friday morning.
A few inches of snow are possible over the northern Plains late Wednesday into Friday morning.
An active weather pattern in place across the western U.S., and also in the southeast U.S., and over the north Atlantic while a strong ridge holds on for now across the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Goes-16 water vapor loop from Monday ending 5:30 PM CT.
Our very mild temperature pattern will continue for the rest of the week with the warmest temperatures likely through Thursday followed by some cooler temperatures late week into this weekend.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid February 6-11, 2024.
As we get into next week, we do see the pattern changing a bit as will see a northwest flow aloft develop in the upper Midwest.
EPS model 500mb anomaly forecast valid February 12-17, 2024.
But even with this new pattern next week, temperatures in our area are still forecast to be above normal although not nearly as warm as we’ve been lately.
Note: Instead of highs in the 30s and 40s with a few 50s mixed in, next week will likely see our highs mainly in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast valid February 12-17, 2024.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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