5:02 PM Sunday, February 18, 2024
A very dry airmass coupled with light winds will cause temperatures to drop fairly quickly tonight with lows in the single digits to lower teens above zero in the Northland, but some locations in northern Minnesota could see subzero temperatures early Monday morning.
Mild temperatures will continue this week as will see highs in the 30s and 40s through midweek, but a brief shot of cooler temperatures is possible on Friday before we see temperatures warm up once again next weekend.
We will see several fronts pass through the area this week but very little if any precipitation is currently forecast.
A more active pattern remains possible next week but that’s still a ways out and things could change.
Note: February 2024 will likely end up as a top 5 warmest and possibly even the warmest February of all-time in some locations across the Northland.
Average monthly temperatures and departure from normal for February 2024 (thru the 17th)
Ashland, WI: 29.8 degrees, +14.3 degrees above normal
Brainerd, MN: 28.3 degrees, +14.9 degrees above normal
Duluth, MN: 28.0 degrees, +14.5 degrees above normal
Hibbing, MN: 25.2 degrees, +16.7 degrees above normal
International Falls, MN: 24.6 degrees, +17.1 degrees above normal
…Warmest February on record…
- Ashland: 26.9 degrees set in 1987
- Brainerd: 29.4 degrees set in 1998
- Duluth: 31.3 degrees set in 1877
- Hibbing: 28.3 degrees set in 1998
- International Falls: 27.1 degrees set in 1998
Cooler temperatures late last week have knocked the average temperatures down a bit, but we are still seeing average temperatures this month running well above normal across the area.
February 2024 average temperature ranks by state.
Minnesota: Warmest on record
Wisconsin: Warmest on record
Michigan: Warmest on record
Note: Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Missouri are having a top 5 warmest February on record so far.
Temperature ranks by state for meteorological winter 2023-2024 (Dec 1 – Feb. 17th) Note, the final day of meteorological winter is February 28th, but this year it will be on February 29th due to this year being a leap year.
- Minnesota — Warmest on record
- Wisconsin — Warmest on record
- Michigan — Warmest on record
- North Dakota — 4th warmest on record
- Iowa — 4th warmest on record
- Ohio — 4th warmest on record
As we look ahead to next week’s pattern, we do see some potential for a more active storm track to develop across the Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes as will see a trough over the western U.S., while a ridge covers the southern/eastern U.S.
How strong any system becomes next week will probably depend on how amplified the pattern gets and as you can see at least on the EPS model the pattern is more zonal (west to east) than anything else for next week which could mean somewhat weaker systems coming out of the Rockies.
Snow prospects for next week don’t look very good right now with more well above average temperatures forecast in the Northland, but that’s not to say we can’t wrap in just enough cold air for a snow event sometime next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast.
Not much agreement seen yet in the GEFS model for next week’s system but that’s not too unusual with something that’s still 200+ hours away as of Sunday morning.
You have some members showing snow in the Northland, others with rain, while some other members are completely dry.
20 member GEFS model precipitation type forecast valid 6 PM Tuesday, February 27, 2024.
Rain (green)
Snow (blue)
Here’s a look at the ensemble models snowfall forecast through February 29th.
EPS model which consists of 50 members.
GEFS model which consists of 30 members.
You don’t see a 5% chance for tornadoes very often in California, but that is indeed the case on Monday as we could see a few severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in central California.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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