6:19 PM Monday, February 19, 2024
A cold start to the day across the Northland with several locations in far northern Minnesota reporting subzero temperatures this morning, but with southerly winds and mostly sunny skies temperatures warmed up quite a bit this afternoon, and a very dry airmass over our area also helped to increase the temperatures quite significantly this afternoon compared to the temperatures from earlier this morning.
Much of the Northland had temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s this afternoon with the exception to this along the North Shore of Lake Superior where temperatures were in the 20s due to an easterly wind coming off Lake Superior.
More 30s and 40s are likely for high temperatures through midweek with a few locations in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin possibly getting into the 50s on Wednesday.
A brief shot of colder temperatures is possible late in the week peaking on Friday with highs in the upper teens to around 30 degrees (coldest temps in far northern Minnesota), but any shot of colder temperatures should be short lived as milder temperatures make a return this weekend.
Note the arctic air sitting north/east of Lake Superior today with late afternoon temperatures in the single digits.
Low Temperature Reports from Monday morning
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
10 W Gunflint Lake, MN: -8
Grand Marais Airport: -6
Orr, MN: -4
Crane Lake, MN: -4
Brimson, MN: -3
Embarrass, MN: -3
2 S Tower, MN: -3
Ely, MN: -2
Cook, MN: 0
International Falls, MN: 1
Eveleth, MN: 1
Hibbing, MN: 1
Bigfork, MN: 3
Hayward, WI: 6
Duluth Airport: 9
The arctic air this week will be confined to central and eastern portions of Canada, but we will see one more shot of arctic air late this week, and this one may impact parts of the Northland for a brief time on Friday, but the core of the coldest temperatures look like they will stay a little farther to the north.
NAM model 850mb temperature for Friday morning.
At this point it’s pretty much a broken record when it comes to the temperature trends.
More above average temperatures ahead for the rest of this week, but that’s not to say we won’t see a brief shot of cooler temperatures mixed in, but overall, warmer than average temperatures look to continue through next week.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast.
Next week’s temperature outlook.
EPS model temperature anomaly forecast.
The pattern stays pretty quiet this week, but things might change a bit next week, but caution is advised when looking at computer model snowfall forecasts for next week, especially when you factor in the temperature forecasts. Not saying you can’t get snow in a warmer pattern because you can, but it would take a near perfect setup to get enough cold air to mix into a system to give us some snow next week.
The EPS model (euro ensemble) isn’t too enthused with the prospects for snow in our area next week.
Especially when you compare it with the GEFS model which shows quite a bit more snow in our area next week compared to the EPS model.
The NWS Blend of models appears to be a middle ground approach between the lighter snow totals per EPS guidance and the higher snow totals per GEFS guidance.
Again though, we’re talking about something that’s about a week out, with timing of any system whether it brings rain or snow to our area coming after February 26th the way it looks now.
Thanks for reading!
Tim
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